Comments on: And democracy wins, by a hair http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/ She escaped from the belly of the liberal beast Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:39:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: ymarsakar http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17614 ymarsakar Wed, 05 Dec 2007 15:48:05 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17614 The fact that Chavez can't stop all these resources from fleeing, as the GDR did in Berlin, is an interesting example of socialism's inner workings in addition to Chavez' security gaps. The fact that Chavez can’t stop all these resources from fleeing, as the GDR did in Berlin, is an interesting example of socialism’s inner workings in addition to Chavez’ security gaps.

]]> By: SGT Dave http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17615 SGT Dave Wed, 05 Dec 2007 07:57:43 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17615 Eric, You are correct about Soviet Russia and the current regimes in Cuba and North Korea. However, the largest difference between these nations and Venezuela has to do with border security and internal security measures. The land borders of Venezuela are largely undefendable and Chavez does not have the money or manpower to close them. Stalin, Castro and Kim Il-Jong had the ability to isolate their people through their geographic regions. If the Kulaks could have moved around easily, they would have fled. As it is, certain resources (doctors, lawyers, and engineers) are fleeing Venezuela in droves. Chavez is unable to stop them and will be unable to stop their families from leaving as well. Also note that Chavez is having to use Cubans as his personal security and as the source of military personnel for the government in Caracas. He doesn't (and can't) trust his own military - they do not like him and will not bend to the tactics necessary. It is still in flux, but the lack of will among native Venezuelan security troops and the resentment of the Cubans should short-circuit Chavez' plans. I want to be somewhere where I can sit with a bottle of Glenfiddich and watch the fireworks. Sigh. SGT Dave "Wastin' away again out in Kosovo." Eric,
You are correct about Soviet Russia and the current regimes in Cuba and North Korea. However, the largest difference between these nations and Venezuela has to do with border security and internal security measures. The land borders of Venezuela are largely undefendable and Chavez does not have the money or manpower to close them. Stalin, Castro and Kim Il-Jong had the ability to isolate their people through their geographic regions. If the Kulaks could have moved around easily, they would have fled. As it is, certain resources (doctors, lawyers, and engineers) are fleeing Venezuela in droves. Chavez is unable to stop them and will be unable to stop their families from leaving as well.
Also note that Chavez is having to use Cubans as his personal security and as the source of military personnel for the government in Caracas. He doesn’t (and can’t) trust his own military - they do not like him and will not bend to the tactics necessary.
It is still in flux, but the lack of will among native Venezuelan security troops and the resentment of the Cubans should short-circuit Chavez’ plans.
I want to be somewhere where I can sit with a bottle of Glenfiddich and watch the fireworks. Sigh.

SGT Dave
“Wastin’ away again out in Kosovo.”

]]> By: Eric-Odessit http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17616 Eric-Odessit Tue, 04 Dec 2007 22:03:55 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17616 SGT Dave, Excellent analysis. However, the symptoms you are describing were present in Russia/Soviet Union in the 1920s, yet the Communist regime did not collapse. The reason was that it was ruthless enough to kill off all the opposition. For a totalitarian regime there is that "happy point" where they keep people afraid enough and fed enough, so that they don't revolt. The further they along, the less likely it is that people would try to overthrow the regime. The examples are North Korea and Cuba. Let's see what will happen. I still think that we might see Stalin's terror repeated in Venezuela. Eric. SGT Dave,
Excellent analysis. However, the symptoms you are describing were present in Russia/Soviet Union in the 1920s, yet the Communist regime did not collapse. The reason was that it was ruthless enough to kill off all the opposition. For a totalitarian regime there is that “happy point” where they keep people afraid enough and fed enough, so that they don’t revolt. The further they along, the less likely it is that people would try to overthrow the regime. The examples are North Korea and Cuba.
Let’s see what will happen. I still think that we might see Stalin’s terror repeated in Venezuela.
Eric.

]]> By: Ymarsakar http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17617 Ymarsakar Tue, 04 Dec 2007 17:19:50 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17617 Okay, the novel I was thinking about was not Niven's Lucifer's H, but the Comet by Ben Bova. Okay, the novel I was thinking about was not Niven’s Lucifer’s H, but the Comet by Ben Bova.

]]> By: SGT Dave http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17618 SGT Dave Tue, 04 Dec 2007 09:28:06 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17618 All, Chavez stuffed as many boxes as he could, but there were international observers in several areas and the count room. He's facing a revolution soon - he's already drained so much money from their economy and is in the process of wrecking the oil industry. The big picture is much worse than it looks; the infrastructure has not been maintained and their production is falling by over 10% yearly because of that issue (I don't have the references at hand - from an oil industry paper, open source, regarding Citgo operations and earnings). He's supporting the FARC, hiring Cuban mercenaries and doctors at top dollar (pumping money into Cuba), and has forced outside investment away from Venezuela. The big beneficiary of this is Brazil; their new oil field will find plenty of US/Euro investors because of the void left by Chavez' nationalization of private oil industry assets. Venezuela can't just ship their oil anywhere, either. Their tanker fleet and port facilities are not suitable for blue-water operations to Europe or Asia; they are tied to the Americas and more specifically to the refineries on the US gulf coast. This is why he hasn't stopped selling oil and gasoline to the US; no other market is available. Chavez is stealing Venezuela blind; if Brazil opens up their oil field he will lose what little support he has in the region as other nations will move away from him to purchase oil from a more stable source. All in all, Chavez is on a short clock. Unemployment is at a near all-time high in Venezuela, professionals - especially doctors and lawyers - are fleeing the country in record numbers, and there is little or no foreign capital rolling in to offset the hard currency he is paying to Cuba to keep his health care and police forces staffed and working. I'm going to sit back and enjoy the show; Chavez is going to fall in 2-5 years, maybe less depending on how many elections he tries to rig. If this one had passed, Caracas would have been burning. Be patient; this one has been falling apart since 2003. My number in the office pool is Jan 09 - I figure student riots will bring him down after another year of posturing. All the best, SGT Dave "If at first you don't succeed, try high explosives." All,
Chavez stuffed as many boxes as he could, but there were international observers in several areas and the count room. He’s facing a revolution soon - he’s already drained so much money from their economy and is in the process of wrecking the oil industry. The big picture is much worse than it looks; the infrastructure has not been maintained and their production is falling by over 10% yearly because of that issue (I don’t have the references at hand - from an oil industry paper, open source, regarding Citgo operations and earnings). He’s supporting the FARC, hiring Cuban mercenaries and doctors at top dollar (pumping money into Cuba), and has forced outside investment away from Venezuela. The big beneficiary of this is Brazil; their new oil field will find plenty of US/Euro investors because of the void left by Chavez’ nationalization of private oil industry assets.
Venezuela can’t just ship their oil anywhere, either. Their tanker fleet and port facilities are not suitable for blue-water operations to Europe or Asia; they are tied to the Americas and more specifically to the refineries on the US gulf coast. This is why he hasn’t stopped selling oil and gasoline to the US; no other market is available.
Chavez is stealing Venezuela blind; if Brazil opens up their oil field he will lose what little support he has in the region as other nations will move away from him to purchase oil from a more stable source.
All in all, Chavez is on a short clock. Unemployment is at a near all-time high in Venezuela, professionals - especially doctors and lawyers - are fleeing the country in record numbers, and there is little or no foreign capital rolling in to offset the hard currency he is paying to Cuba to keep his health care and police forces staffed and working.
I’m going to sit back and enjoy the show; Chavez is going to fall in 2-5 years, maybe less depending on how many elections he tries to rig. If this one had passed, Caracas would have been burning.
Be patient; this one has been falling apart since 2003. My number in the office pool is Jan 09 - I figure student riots will bring him down after another year of posturing.
All the best,
SGT Dave
“If at first you don’t succeed, try high explosives.”

]]> By: Danny Lemieux http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17619 Danny Lemieux Mon, 03 Dec 2007 23:35:50 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17619 Let's wait and see Let’s wait and see

]]> By: fporretto http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17620 fporretto Mon, 03 Dec 2007 21:48:49 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17620 Don't assume that the Chavistas <b><i>didn't</i></b> stuff the ballot boxes, Eric. I would bet my savings that they stuffed 'em like Thanksgiving turkeys, until they could hold no more. But the pre-referendum polls showed 70% of the respondents were <b><i>against</i></b> the "reform" propositions. Apparently the boxes just couldn't hold enough fraudulent votes. Watch for a return of these "reform" proposals...and lots bigger ballot boxes. Don’t assume that the Chavistas didn’t stuff the ballot boxes, Eric. I would bet my savings that they stuffed ‘em like Thanksgiving turkeys, until they could hold no more. But the pre-referendum polls showed 70% of the respondents were against the “reform” propositions. Apparently the boxes just couldn’t hold enough fraudulent votes.

Watch for a return of these “reform” proposals…and lots bigger ballot boxes.

]]> By: sherlock http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17621 sherlock Mon, 03 Dec 2007 21:34:31 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17621 I am amazed this has happened. How did a dictator like Chavez allow this? I second the comment I saw elsewhere that speculated that the "reform" proposals must have actually been crushed by a wide margin, if Chavez could not find a way to change the outcome, or did not feel he dared to. And where was the friend of dictators everywhere, Jimmy Carter? Was he on call to certify the results, or did he steer clear of this one? I am amazed this has happened. How did a dictator like Chavez allow this? I second the comment I saw elsewhere that speculated that the “reform” proposals must have actually been crushed by a wide margin, if Chavez could not find a way to change the outcome, or did not feel he dared to.

And where was the friend of dictators everywhere, Jimmy Carter? Was he on call to certify the results, or did he steer clear of this one?

]]> By: Eric-Odessit http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17622 Eric-Odessit Mon, 03 Dec 2007 21:21:38 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17622 I just wonder what stopped Chavez from stuffing the ballot boxes and claim victory anyway. Then again, in 1934 at the 18th Party Congress Stalin was not elected the General Secretary. The guy elected was named Sergey Kirov. Kirov was convinced to graciously decline the honor, and Stalin remained the General Secretary. A year later Kirov was mysteriously assassinated by the "enemies of the people", which precipitated the start of the "big terror" of the late 1930s in the Soviet Union. Very few of the delegates to that Part Congress survived. So we might yet see the repeat of that "big terror" in Venezuela. Eric. I just wonder what stopped Chavez from stuffing the ballot boxes and claim victory anyway. Then again, in 1934 at the 18th Party Congress Stalin was not elected the General Secretary. The guy elected was named Sergey Kirov. Kirov was convinced to graciously decline the honor, and Stalin remained the General Secretary. A year later Kirov was mysteriously assassinated by the “enemies of the people”, which precipitated the start of the “big terror” of the late 1930s in the Soviet Union. Very few of the delegates to that Part Congress survived.
So we might yet see the repeat of that “big terror” in Venezuela.
Eric.

]]> By: highlander http://www.bookwormroom.com/2007/12/03/and-democracy-wins-by-a-hair/#comment-17623 highlander Mon, 03 Dec 2007 16:40:39 +0000 http://proto2.webloggin.com/?p=2198#comment-17623 All I can say is, "Whew!" All I can say is, “Whew!”

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