The moment I saw the boastful headline yesterday announcing that, if the election were held today, either Obama or Hillary would beat McCain by a mile, I suspected that something was wrong. The numbers just didn’t sound right. And of course, they’re not:
However, a closer look at the poll’s internals reveals that the poll’s respondents self-identified 40% Dem and 28% Repub, with 28% as independents (among independents, Dem-leaners among the poll’s respondents went 46% Dem, 26% Repub, and 22% neither).
Overall, the ABC News/Washington Post poll’s respondents went 56% Dem-leaning and 36% Repub-leaning, a 19-point spread. Only 84% of the voters questioned were registered. (See questions 901-904)
Really, I don’t know why we bother to consider polls anymore, I honestly don’t.
See also Hot Air, where Ed Morrissey (formerly the Captain), who has made something of a specialty out of debunking flawed media polls, explains precisely what’s wrong with this one.
On the bright side, Ben Shapiro thinks the media’s cavalier handling of McCain, which effectively relegates him to feisty underdog status, may work to his benefit.Email This Post To A Friend
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