Marin is about as liberal a community as one can possibly find. That means that the analyst for the local political newspaper is a liberal too. Right now, he’s a very depressed liberal, since he’s absolutely certain that the Democrats are imploding, leading to the inevitability of a McCain victory:
Arizona Sen. McCain will be victorious on Nov. 4. The heroic McCain is the only Republican with any hope of attracting independents and moderate Democrats. That’s something that Republicans, facing annihilation after the unpopular Bush-Cheney era, desperately need. While I acknowledge questioning my sagacity in late 2007 during McCain’s dark days, he ultimately vindicated my hunch.
McCain now faces a Democratic Party tearing itself apart. If the 1980 Jimmy Carter-Ted Kennedy primary contest taught us anything, it’s that a party divided upon entering a national convention will lose. I acknowledge the economy has tanked, there’s no way out of the Iraq fiasco and that public confidence is as low as the price of gas is high. Yet when it comes to losing presidential elections, the Democratic mantra is “Yes, I can.”
In fighting for the top spot, Clinton not only has taken the luster out of the once-sparkling Obama, she has managed to amplify her already negative image. That will be fatal in the fall election.
McCain will win IF he gets back on his Straight Talk Express and distances himself from the befuddled Bush. While this will displease the political right, hatred of all things Clinton will keep them in the Arizonan’s camp. McCain’s problem is that he’s off to a slow start by pandering to the shrinking GOP base. Perhaps wiser hands will steer him back to the middle after the Minneapolis convention.
As for me, I hope he’s right. McCain, despite his myriad flaws, is infinitely preferable to either Hillary or Obama.
By the way, I can think of one other reason Hillary might not win, although it’s a silly one. I just realized as I wrote this post that I always refer to McCain and Obama by their last names, because those names are unique in the political race. I refer to Hillary, however, by her first name, not as a sign of disrespect, but to distinguish her from her husband. The fact that a woman ends up with this casual appellation does not bode well for subliminal signals about her stature. Others are probably going to pick up on this same subliminal “girl” quality, and are not going to give her quite the deference given the “men.” She’ll lose for that reason too, I think.