For the last ten years Ireland has been the sole demonstrably growing economy in Europe. Eire is booming; the best anybody else can do is stagger along aabout an inch above “zero growth.”

It’s the first time in a long time (probably ever) that the Irish could say that. They’re unlikely to give that up. Never ones to quail before telling anyone else to go to hell, it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s what they tell the EU.

Assumption 1: Obama is at the highest he can rise to. He won’t be able to attract hardly anyone he hasn’t already attracted. Easy McCain win.

Assumption 2: Obama is at the lowest he can fall to. All the unsavory characters and mistakes are out of the way and will be forgotten. Easy Obama win.

I don’t see either candidate or campaign team making the mistake.

For that vast muddled middle, the Independents, who won’t be paying attention anyway until after Labor Day, will this be a values election or an issues/economy election? Or will it be a “who do I trust” election? If values, then McCain wins. If issues, then Obama wins. If trust, then it gets interesting. McCain as maverick wins, McCain as Republican loses unless further Obama gaffes after Labor Day worry the muddled middle.

Is McCain enough of a change agent compared to Bush, or can Obama successfully tie him to Bush via the argument “McCain has agreed with Bush 95% of the time and has assured everyone he is a real conservative Republican”? Obama’s already begun beating that message like a drum. McCain is working the inexperience and untrustworthy angle. I don’t know which message will take hold. Do you?

Will the usual indicators about two-term Presidents in a bad economy hold? This has always led to a switch in the Executive to the other party. Or is this that unusual a year where that iron-clad rule simply won’t hold?

If before November Israel does attack Iran with US support, or if the US attacks Iran directly, what will the effects be?

There’s all kinds of uncertainty in this election. I have no idea which way the American people are going to move. Certainly they don’t all seem to agree with me that McCain is clearly superior even though he’s a terrible communicator. Perhaps the election is already decided and we can’t see it yet - as the Dem race was actually already over when Hillary did not win out on Super Tuesday in early February? Or is the race really uncertain, and the better message, candidate, and campaign will make a critical difference leading into November?

In any case, the worst mistake is to underestimate your opponent.

Arabs don’t like the weak horse and neither do they like impotent sissies.

That’s one thing you can count on.