Comments on: More on polls and the American voter

By: suek

suek — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:48:00 +0000

Mike…
No disagreement from me on the “because it sells” rationale. They have to either gin up the enthusiasm with the “neck and neck” idea, or they have to arouse the ire of whichever is losing in order to stimulate interest so that the race _becomes_ neck and neck…

Just a form of armchair sports…

By: Duchess of Austin

Duchess of Austin — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 15:16:31 +0000

I don’t put much stock in polls, for several reasons:

1) You can guarantee the outcome you want by how you phrase the questions;

2) Most people talk the progressive talk to their friends, yet when the curtain closes on the voting booth, they tend to vote more conservatively;

3) After voting more conservatively, they exit the voting booth and lie their asses off to exit pollsters (see the skewed exit polls from the Kerry/Bush election that had Kerry winning by a landslide)

I agree with Suek that the only poll that counts is the one on Nov. 4, because it is a straight up yes/no and there is no way to twist it. You choose between one of 2 candidates and the votes are tallied.

Personally, I see a landslide in the offing, but it won’t be Obama riding it, because his narcissism in co-opting the Presidental Seal will turn off all but the most ardent of his supporters, combined with his shady associates and supporters, his racist pastor or his detailed explaination (which hasn’t been forwarded) as to why he spent 20 years as a parishioner of this man if he didn’t believe the message, his outright lie about public funding….all these things are going to add up and only the most partisan dem would be able to pull the lever for Obama.

I have faith that Americans are not dumb enough yet. It’s gonna take another generation or 2.

By: Mike

Mike — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:33:40 +0000

Thanks Danny that’s the word I want.”Implode” Suek the reason is because it sells more newspapers and tv time and now internet useage (s) and that’s the name of the game.

By: suek

suek — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:16:16 +0000

There’s only one poll that counts - and that’s on Nov.4. I understand why political parties - or teams working for individual candidates - use them, but I really don’t understand the point of pollsters and newspapers doing them.

By: Danny Lemieux

Danny Lemieux — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 20:10:11 +0000

Us political junkies excepted, most people aren’t paying attention to the race yet but instead have opted to lead normal lives.

Normal people will start paying attention after Labor Day. That is when I predict that the Obama campaign will seriously begin to implode.

By: Ellie2

Ellie2 — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 19:49:19 +0000

Polls are more and more news organizations inventing the news, rather than any honest attempt to discover what people think. Polls are also used by campaigns (and their co-conspirators, the networks) to create momentum or to impede it.

As predictors of the future, polls rely on two principles - that people will behave in the future as they have in the past and that the sample accurately represents the whole.

Both principles are seriously challenged in this Presidential race. If we get lots of new voters or if reliable voters of the past stay home, both principles are out the window.

Ignore them. Or for more fun, lie to any pollster who calls.

By: Helen Losse

Helen Losse — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 18:51:31 +0000

I don’t put much confidence in polls, especially polls this early in the campaign. Fact is, neither John McCain not Barack Obama has been nominated yet.