A little perspective

The worst may be yet to come, but before the panic reaches an altitude from which there is no recovery, keep the following in mind (with thanks to Mike Devx, who gave me the idea).

Re 1997, from Wikipedia:

In financial markets, Black Monday is the name given to Monday, October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short period. The crash began in Hong Kong, spread west through international time zones to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1739 (22.6%).[1] By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. New Zealand’s market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover.[2] (The terms Black Monday and Black Tuesday are also applied to October 28 and 29, 1929, which occurred after Black Thursday on October 24, which started the Stock Market Crash of 1929. In Australia and New Zealand the 1987 crash is also referred to as Black Tuesday because of the timezone difference.)

The Black Monday decline was the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history. Other large declines have occurred after periods of market closure, such as on Monday, September 17, 2001, the first day that the market was open following the September 11, 2001 attacks. (Saturday, December 12, 1914, is sometimes erroneously cited[3][4] as the largest one-day percentage decline of the DJIA. In reality, the ostensible decline of 24.39% was created retroactively by a redefinition of the DJIA in 1916.

Re the current market loss, from CNN money:

Stocks skidded Monday, with the Dow slumping nearly 778 points, in the biggest single-day point loss ever, after the House rejected the government’s $700 billion bank bailout plan.

Do you think the members of the media currently screaming for blood even have an understanding about the difference between point and percentage losses?

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Comments

  1. OBloodyHell says

    In a steadily rising market, it’s obvious you’re going to see new “record point changes” every once in a while.

    The market, which held steady at about 1000 for the entire period of 1962-1983, has been increasing, peaking at just short of 14,000, and has since dropped. As I speak, it’s skidded to below 10k for the first time since 2004.

    It’s not great, but it’s not surprising given the massive cluster-f*** by a coalition of stupid Democrats, chickensh** Republicans, greedy businessmen, and imbecilic purchasers, in that order.

    To put it in real perspective:
    On November 21, 1995 the DJIA closed above 5,000 (5,023.55) for the first time.
    On March 29, 1999, the average closed above the 10,000 mark (10,006.78) for the first time.

    So, at this point, it’s still higher than it had EVER BEEN just 10 years ago.

  2. Tiresias says

    To answer your question: no. That would take brains and some level of education. And, given the experience of the last decade, why would you suppose they’d suddenly acquire that?

  3. BrianE says

    Days with Greatest Percentage Loss
    Rank Date % Change
    1 10/19/1987 -22.61
    2 10/28/1929 -12.82
    3 10/29/1929 -11.73
    4 11/06/1929 -9.92
    5 12/18/1899 -8.72
    6 08/12/1932 -8.40
    7 03/14/1907 -8.29
    8 10/26/1987 -8.04
    9 07/21/1933 -7.84
    10 10/18/1937 -7.75
    11 02/01/1917 -7.24
    12 10/27/1997 -7.18
    13 10/05/1932 -7.15
    14 09/17/2001 -7.13
    15 09/24/1931 -7.07
    16 07/20/1933 -7.07
    17 09/29/2008 -6.98
    18 07/30/1914 -6.91
    19 10/13/1989 -6.91
    20 01/08/1988 -6.85

    According to Dow Jones, the recent drop was number 17 compared to all time. The media has a vested interest in creating fear in the voters mind. All led with the point drop since that fits the narrative.

  4. BrianE says

    Days with Greatest Net Gain
    Rank Date Close Net Chg. % Chg.
    1 03/16/2000 10630.60 499.19 4.93
    2 07/24/2002 8191.29 488.95 6.35
    3 09/30/2008 10850.66 485.21 4.68
    4 07/29/2002 8711.88 447.49 5.41
    5 03/18/2008 12392.66 420.41 3.51
    6 03/11/2008 12156.81 416.66 3.55
    7 09/18/2008 11019.69 410.03 3.86
    8 04/05/2001 9918.05 402.63 4.23
    9 04/18/2001 10615.83 399.10 3.91
    10 04/01/2008 12645.36 391.47 3.19

    This is probably a statistic you aren’t getting from the media. 9 of the 10 top days with point gains have been during George Bush’s Presidency. But none of those days are even close when compared to percentage gains.

    Days with Greatest Percentage Gain
    Rank Date % Change
    1 10/06/1931 14.87
    2 10/30/1929 12.34
    3 09/21/1932 11.36
    4 10/21/1987 10.15
    5 08/03/1932 9.52
    6 02/11/1932 9.47
    7 11/14/1929 9.36
    8 12/18/1931 9.35
    9 02/13/1932 9.19
    10 05/06/1932 9.08

  5. socratease says

    Do you think the members of the media currently screaming for blood even have an understanding about the difference between point and percentage losses?

    Of course they do. Just like they know that when they talk about “record oil company profits” that the absolute numbers are meaningless without expressing them as a percentage of total sales. But the media isn’t interested in informing its customers anymore. It’s not even interested in keeping its customers’ interest, considering recent declines in subscriber rates. It’s primary concern seems to be frightening the populace into making mis-informed decisions that go in the direction of what the media believes would be a better world.

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