Now this was approaching statistical improbability if they were simply “guessing”. So they weren’t guessing. But the question was, how were they eliminating the false positives? So then I picked a wrong color, and noticed that each house had a number from only one color group. Then I experimented and the results proved my hypothesis.

I guess conservatives can do real science, after all, even if they are Intelligent Design proponents.

The last four have nothing to do with it. The first door you click on will always be your number, and the other two will be other numbers of your color.

Here’s the Right Wing News guest blogger line-up this week-end. Saturday ——– Bookworm from Bookworm Room Cassy Fiano Kathy Shaidle Five Feet Of Fury Morgan from House of Eratosthenes Gina Cobb John Stephenson from Stop The ACLU Little Miss Attila…

I dabbled in magic when I was a kid, and one book I read said something I’ve never forgotten:

If you know a hundred ways to discover the card, but only one way to reveal it, you know one card trick. But, if you know only one way to discover a card, but a hundred ways to reveal it, you know a hundred card tricks.

Sort of in that vein is what I think they called “Magicians Choice,” or some such. In its simplest form you would lay down two cards, one of which was the chosen card, and you know which it is.

Then you say, “Pick one.” If he chooses his card, fine and dandy. If he chooses the other card, you simply say, “…and that leaves… ” *drum roll* as you sweep up the other card and flip over the remaining, the chosen card.

If you’re good, they really don’t notice that in a previous trick you did the opposite. The point is, there’s no choice at all. Once you’ve identified the card, there’s a million ways to move it around in the deck through easy sleight of hand, and that facilitates a bazillion ways to reveal it. My favorite was taking the apparently compacted deck — you know, like it came out of the box –, and, with dramatic flare and flourish, throwing it bottom down flat ***SMACK*** onto the table top. Since you can’t do it perfectly, the cards will always kind of fan themselves out in a ragged arc, and miraculously, the chosen card is lying face up on the fan having seemingly jumped out of the fan, and turned itself over. It’s got drama, motion, sound, surprise, everything. Really wows ‘em, and dirt simple to do.

After sufficient begging, cajoling, whining, wheedling, bribing, imploring, pleading, etc., etc. I may reveal the reveal.

Different but the same…

I remember a card trick that used the same principle, I think. You laid out four vertical rows of four cards each, face up. Patsy was asked to mentally choose a card, identifying only the row it was in. You picked up the cards by collapsing each row, then stacking them with the identified row as the top four cards. You then laid out the cards again, but this time you placed them one card each in four rows horizontally, then the second card horizontally etc. Patsy is asked to identify the row. You now know the card, since only one card from the row was also in the original identified row. Cards are picked up again, collapsing and stacking them in any order as long as you remember which set of four is where in the deck. Cards are then dealt into four north/south/east/west forms, face down. You should still know where card is. Patsy is told to select a set of four. As long as it’s not in the group where the selected card is, you pick up that set. If Patsy chooses the set where the card is, you pick up an opposite set. Same process till you have one set of four – where you know your Patsy’s card is. Then you tell Patsy to select two cards, and remove as before – either the cards designated or the opposites. Then pick one card only, and remove as before. When you turn over the last card, it’s the one Patsy chose originally. Patsy is appropriately puzzled. The idea is that after the second set, you know what the card is, you just do the rest to flim-flam the patsy.

I think this puzzle is something of the same ilk.