CBO consults with Bookworm Room, revises forecasts!

Oh dear, it appears the CBO has turned a tad pessimistic about its earlier prognostications on the economy, stimulus and ObamaCare, heralded as dogma and chiseled in stone tablets on the alters of the Left’s Temple of Orthodoxy.

 

Drinks all around for the Bookworm Room denizens that correctly anticipated the outcomes cited herein. It appears that we are better read and even more astute than we thought, even though (I suspect) most (97% – a consensus!) of us do not generally listen to NPR but watch FOX News Channel instead. I am pleased, I must say, to have our very succinct analyses of these highly complex situations confirmed by such an august body that has clearly demonstrated an intellectual honesty by letting us change its mind. Perhaps the IPCC will now deign to do the same.

 

I’ve linked to a summary that provides the direct link to the most recent CBO report. You can catch the gist of the CBO report in the report’s summary.

 

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/22/cbo-long-term-budget-outlook-the-futures-not-looking-so-hot/

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  • suek

    Well Darn.
     
    You just rang the bell.
     
    The dogs will begin to salivate immediately, I predict.

  • Charles Martel

    Danny, I appeal to you as a believer in the Son of Sky Fairy, do not jerk the chains of the Templars of Orthodoxy! It is uncharitable.

    But if you must, please pretend to hide your glee.

  • SADIE

    Two more NPR listeners …

    Bernanke Admits He’s Clueless On Economy’s Soft Patch
    http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/06/22/bernanke-admits-hes-clueless-on-economys-soft-patch/

    and that other clueless fella http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJvkRFKGgGw&feature=player_embedded

  • abc

    How funny.  The person who uses non-economists to write economic blogs continues the fantasy by claiming that the CBO consults her on the economy.  That’s a good one.
     
     
    Here is the best part.  The UK did what conservatives have been calling on the US to do:  cut government spending immediately since, according to our GOP leaders, this will create jobs.  But how is the UK economy doing relative to the US economy?  Let’s just take a look at the most recent GDP numbers out of both nations.  On economic growth, the respective GDP growth in the most recent quarter is as follows:  GDP growth (mrq)  UK–0.5%, US–1.8%.  Meanwhile, on the issue of consumer price inflation, the rate also makes the UK look worse:  inflation rate (mrq)  UK–4.5%, US–3.6%.  And while the UK continues to have a lower unemployment rate (7.7% vs. 9.0%), the UK’s rate never went up as high as the US since the subprime crisis was less severe in its impact there; however, most economists are expecting the unemployment in the UK to increase given the impact of public spending cuts on employment there.  In summary, the country that is following the GOP/conservative prescription is doing WORSE than the US, even on the lowered expectations of the US economy.

    Of course, Book and other conservatives are actually cheering this bad economic news, since they would love nothing better than to see economic malaise continue so that Obama has a tougher reelection fight.  Party over country.  That is apparently the motto of the conservatives.  Nevermind that they have no good ideas for economic recovery, and the UK serves as the perfect example of this.

  • Michael Adams

    As I have said, to an irritating degree, and will, by the Sky Fairy, continue to say, we don’t have cable, being intellectuals. However, my Medicaid home care patient’s family just moved to a new apartment, which has, for a limited time only, cable connected.  I have seen several hours of Fox, and a few minutes, all I could stomach, of CNN. America is doomed! Both networks have at least two hours a day of a murder trial in Florida, that gives  the OJ fiasco an air of solemn judicial probity. There’s more, but I just can’t stand it. Bear in mind, whatever high tech miracles I do, I am still, at its base,  in the s**t-wiping business. The ordure of these cable networks  overpowers even my very strong stomach.
     
    I submit that, even if we were to listen to NPR, what has happened to us is that we have learned to decode the Left-wing media, in a process that began as each of us recognized that, where they ‘reported’ on matters of which we had first–hand knowledge, they got it wrong, too wrong to be merely sloppy. Most of us have developed a kind of formula, not terribly different from an awareness of how to transpose a Spanish word to French or vice-verse. (Or, in Martel’s case, French to Occitanian) Sure, we have our sources, too.  There are people I ‘phone or e-mail to get the straight scoop on various topics.  However, the news on Fox is pretty lightweight stuff, and could in no way account for the depth of knowledge I see here.

  • Danny Lemieux

    You’re right, Suek. 

    We are forging new trails deep into Pavlovian response territory. 

    I learned something, though. The UK is apparently run by the Republican Party. Who knew?

  • Michael Adams

    Do y’all realize just how right you are with that Pavlovian reference?  Most people remember the bell, that signaled food.  There were also pictures of a dish of food, a dish, and an oval that looked like the top of the dish, if you were a dog, anyway.  The pooches learned to salivate for all of them.  Book’s  entire case need not be presented, and quite apparently not read, to elicit the response.
     
    Note, also, the nearly complete unawareness of the joke.  This  definitely suggests Asberger-Autism spectrum.

  • SADIE

    Can’t decide, a rabies shot or a stool softener for the constipation.
     
     

  • http://ymarsakar.wordpress.com Ymarsakar

    The only thing on Fox News I would watch is Fox and Friends. They have some attractive people with charming personalities. It’s a more pleasant way to people watch and hone my body language skills than some other stuff I can name (like talking to Leftist wannabe totalitarians on a naked gay parade).

    That’s not because I don’t like Fox. It’s because my time is better spent collating data and analyzing it myself. I no longer need “Fox Analysts”. I got better ones available to me on the net. And i don’t need to wait for them to show up, either.

  • http://ymarsakar.wordpress.com Ymarsakar

    Btw, O’Reilly’s body language guru is someone O’Reilly seems to have a love hate relationship with. It’s clear O’reilly doesn’t KNOW A DAMN THING about detecting lies by reading body language. Yet this is one of the more highly rated segments of his show, seemingly, and he keeps bringing her back in. I didn’t learn body language from her, but I did see her technique and it gave me some pointers after I had already started learning the language of human bodies. I was more of a voice tone analyzer, though.

  • Danny Lemieux

    Michael Adams is right, ABC. It was a joke (or yoke, if you happen to be Scandinavian).

    We just havin’ some fun playin’ with yo head.

    You can chill, now.

  • Charles Martel

    Folks, also note that Harvard Boy, in his “gotta show up Bookworm” eagerness, lacked the reading skills to note it was Mr. Lemieux, not Book, who wrote what he’s knee-jerking to here.

    Sad.

  • Charles Martel

    Speaking of Fox, I never watch TV news. Way too superficial for my taste.

    When I do watch Fox, I love “So You Think You Can Dance” and “America’s Next Master Chef.” The latter is incredibly formulaic, but at least it’s a soap opera with real people and I enjoy seeing how the editors manipulate their footage to get the audience to believe one thing or another about certain conpetitors.

    SYTYCD is just an incredible, high-energy show put on by beautiful young people who are fiercely dedicated to their art and are at the height of their powers. They’re just a delight to watch an I’m happy to commit to the potential heartbreak of picking a favorite who may not make it to the end.

    I realize my tastes don’t pass Squiffy the Mirth Slayer’s high standards, but I can guarantee you this: I’m enjoying my ignorant, low-brow life far more than he’s enjoying the convoluted status game that passes for his.

  • Charles Martel

    “Can’t decide, a rabies shot or a stool softener for the constipation.”

    SADIE, may you live to be 140. But when you pass, we’re stuffing you and putting you in your dressiest pearls right next to the main entrance to the Grand Salon at Bookworm Central. You are way too good to ever really let go.

  • Michael Adams

    Ymarsakar, I definitely included you in the group of independent analysts. I just went a bit further, to say that most of the regulars on here are doing much the same thing. Yeah, I do understand that Book was joking,  but this week’s exposure to Fox has left a yucky taste. I seized the opportunity to down grade them.
    I’m very sorry if I contributed to the delinquency of A, drawing him into a serious discussion of what was, in the beginning,  a joke.
    The Lord knows the lad needs gentle leading, not harsh confrontation.  Freud was wrong about so much, but his idea that many mental afflictions represent a kind of persistent immaturity fits in well with my understanding of how to raise kids, helping them to develop insight, rather than laying down the law.  I know from her postings and his comments that Book and Martel do the same, at least, when the Force is with them.  I’d bet that Danny, Sue and Sadie did likewise.

  • http://zachriel.blogspot.com/2005/07/liberal-v-conservative.html Zachriel

    Danny Lemieux Oh dear, it appears the CBO has turned a tad pessimistic about its earlier prognostications on the economy, stimulus and ObamaCare, heralded as dogma and chiseled in stone tablets on the alters of the Left’s Temple of Orthodoxy.

    You really shouldn’t rely on partisan, secondary sources. CBO has long warned of the problem of unchecked growth in entitlements and debt. 

    Hot Air: The report also affirms the federal government’s latest entitlement program — Obamacare — will not lower health care costs.

    In fact, CBO has determined that Obamacare lowers costs compared to what they would be otherwise. It also estimates that the stimulus had a significantly positive effect. 

    CBO: To keep deficits and debt from climbing to unsustainable levels, policymakers will need to increase revenues substantially as a percentage of GDP, decrease spending significantly from projected levels, or adopt some combination of those two approaches. Making such changes while economic activity and employment remain well below their potential levels would probably slow the economic recovery. However, the sooner that medium- and long-term changes to tax and spending policies are agreed on, and the sooner they are carried out once the economy recovers, the smaller will be the damage to the economy from growing federal debt. Earlier action would permit smaller or more gradual changes and would give people more time to adjust to them, but it would require more sacrifices sooner from current older workers and retirees for the benefit of younger workers and future generations.

  • Danny Lemieux

    It’s tough to paddle against the tide, isn’t it, Zach?

    I agree. Me, too.

  • Charles Martel

    Since the Zachs are Germans, I’d like to ask them a question that has no guile or agenda attached to it: Zachs, how the hell does Germany produce so many great beers when the Reinheitsgebot says brewers can only use four ingredients? I am just astounded by the range and quality of Deutscher beers despite what seems to be such a drastic restriction.

  • http://zachriel.blogspot.com/2005/07/liberal-v-conservative.html Zachriel

    Danny Lemieux: Me, too. 

    Not sure what that means. You may want to compare CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario, which assumes that Bush-era tax rates will be extended indefinitely and that there is no fix for Medicare, with the Extended-Baseline Scenario. 

    Under the Alternative Fiscal Scenario, the result is “debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2021. After that, the growing imbalance between revenues and spending, combined with spiraling interest payments, would swiftly push debt to higher and higher levels. Debt as a share of GDP would exceed its historical peak of 109 percent by 2023 and would approach 190 percent in 2035.”

    Under the Extended-Baseline Scenario, “the significant increase in revenues and decrease in the relative magnitude of other spending would offset much—though not all—of the rise in spending on health care programs and Social Security. As a result, debt would increase slowly from its already high levels relative to GDP, as would the required interest payments on that debt.” 

  • http://ymarsakar.wordpress.com Ymarsakar

    Michael Adams, are you referring to what you wrote here or in another thread?