• stina

    I’m a long-time reader who hasn’t commented often.  Sadly, I think Obama’s campaign managers are right on the money. 
    Whenever my friends and I are chewing the fat about the 2012 presidential election, my (gloomy) prediction has always been that Obama will be re-elected by a small margin. 
    My reasoning runs pretty similar to what Schoen reports about the reasoning of Obama’s campaign managers—that is, a stick-and-carrot campaign consisting on the one hand of Obama threatening American voters with chaos, poverty and rampant raaaaacism (not to mention any other random horrors they can dream up and sprinkle into their campaign discourse) if His Imperial Highness is further impeded by an inept, malevolent Congress (everyone knows the “inept” part is true anyway), eeeeeeevil Republicans (and the GOP establishment hasn’t exactly succeeded in fostering strong, effective leadership to provide a positive counter-image), and raaaaaacist Tea-Partiers (everyone knows they’re racist cuz CNN says so, right?).
    On the other hand, Obama (as he’s doing right now) will present himself as The Community Organizer to End All Community Organizers—the guy who will give a free college education to every young American, a decent income to every retiree,  job security to every worker, and free Cadillac health care to each and every one of us.  Who wouldn’t want that?  Why, Congress/Republicans/Tea Partiers of course!!!!  How can you even ask?
    The fact that this is complete and total fiscally-impossible pie-in-the-sky wishful-thinking unicorn-sparkle-fairy-dust garbage will be entirely irrelevant.  If Obama can stay within a few points of the GOP candidate in this brutally polarized political climate, all he has to do is convince a relatively small segment of independent voters to buy either the carrot or the stick (October surprise, anyone?—not to mention a little electoral-fraud sleight-of-hand to tip the scales).  This is exactly what his campaign managers are planning.  All it takes is for a few people to think “hey, better the devil we know than the devil we don’t know (or so the MSM tells us)” and boom—there you are.
    What do the Republicans have to offer instead (from the POV of a center-independent voter)?  A dollop or two of righteous anger, some extremely painful fiscal policies in the short term (who cares about the long term, it’s too far-off to bother about anyway), and a primary run-up that looks like half a dozen crabs trying to climb out of a bucket.
    At least the carrot and the stick are concrete (so to speak). 
    On the other hand, if this campaign-calculus is wrong and Obama ends up losing, absolutely no one will be happier than I will!

  • jj

    Never, ever – never-never-never-never, for so much as one solitary second ever underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.  Easy to buy off, possessed of no memory, the average American voter is very nearly a moron.  Jay Leno doesn’t have to make up a word of it in the “Jaywalking” segments, there they are, walking around off-leash, and there is no bottom to the national witlessness.

  • Charles Martel

    Regarding what jj says above, I wish I could say he’s being cynical, but I’ve had too many encounters with man-on-the-street thinking to dispute him. The march through the institutions has gone very well, with our schools almost thoroughly corrupted by a lower-order type of thinking dominated by feelings and wishful thinking. I wish I could say that I’ve met any recent college graduates lately that impress me with their thinking skills, but I can’t. 
    Even more insidious is the corruption of the constabulary. It used to be that cops and sheriffs had enough real-world experience that made them hard-to-sell customers for liberal nostrums and hand wringing as a way of life. While they’re strill tough in that respect, too many of them have fallen for life as know-it-all tinpot dictators who don’t like scrutiny or having their moneymaking “drug” busts questioned. The servants have become imperious louts, while the citizenry has become the bread and circuses-loving heirs to Rome.