How much do you think the polls will change once the Republican primaries end?

Rasmussen just came out with a pre-debate poll that shows Obama leading both Romney and Santorum by ten and seven points respectively.  Couple this with headlines touting good news on the economy (some of which is definitely real and some illusory) and it’s enough to send something stronger than a frisson of fear coursing up a conservative’s spine.  While a few months ago it looked as if Obama could lose to a generic Republican candidate, it’s becoming increasingly clear that it will be harder for a specific Republican candidate to beat him.

Or not?

Conservative and Republican voters are deeply divided between Romney and Santorum (although both have shamefully big government voting records, making them a Hobson’s choice).  Is it possible that, when a pollster calls a Santorum voter and asks him to give his opinion about a possible Obama vs. Romney match-up, that voter finds it very hard to imagine himself pulling the lever for Romney?  After all, today, he is as opposed to Romney as he is to Obama. The same holds true for Romney supporters who are asked to envision a Santorum vs. Obama election.

The question that ought to concern us is whether this distaste for the other Republican candidate will continue once the primary season is over, so that Romney supporters will hang back if Santorum wins the nomination and vice versa.  In that case, Obama will indeed win.  If, however, conservative and Republican voters consolidate behind the last candidate standing, that block should be sufficient to shift the polling weight and, more importantly, the election outcome.

What do you think will happen?  Will Republicans and conservatives be able to come together behind a single candidate, or has this primary been so divisive that the Republican party is too wounded to win?

Be Sociable, Share!
  • SADIE

    If I was bleeding from every orifice in my body, I’d drag myself to the polls to unseat him. The quote [my emphasis] should be enough to scare the hell out of every independent and conservative voter and if a progressive had anything other than sh*t for brains, but I digress. Btw…I’ve read that Kamala Harris is on his list for a SCOTUS appointment, assuming that Ruth is gone literally or figuratively.  

    Barack Obama made no bones about his chances of reelection in an interview with America’s largest Hispanic radio service, saying: “I’ve got another five years coming up.”

    Quizzed by Univision’s Eddie “Piolin” Sotelo about his failure to enact comprehensive immigration reform Obama replied: “Well, first of all, Piolin, my presidency is not over.  “I’ve got another five years coming up. We’re going to get this done,” he continued, according to a transcript of the interview, which was conducted on Tuesday and broadcast on Univision Radio on Wednesday.
     

  • roylofquist

    There is one enormous issue overshadowing all else in this election – Obamacare. From the day it passed and even before it has been anathema to an overwhelming number of voters. Scott Brown was elected to defeat it. Last I saw it was 50%-35% for repeal. The issue has been exacerbated and shoved to fore by the contraception mandate. All of the main stream religious establishments, including Jews, have been angered and aroused. The first few of many lawsuits have been filed. Lawfare has started. 

    The polls today, and in the near future,  are utterly meaningless. At this point in 1980 it was Carter 58%, Reagan 35%. 

  • Mike Devx

    If the polls in my state just before the election say it’s close, I’ll be voting against Obama by voting for the GOP candidate.  But I am not enthused.  None of these GOP candidates are capable of preventing the downward slide, and even under the GOP candidate, four years later we’ll all be worse off than we are today.  But under Obama, we would be so much WORSE off.

    If Obama is reelected, then we – we meaning: “All Americans as a Whole” – deserve exactly what we’re going to get.  That re-election, if it happens, may very well be the signal that tells me that my America, the America I love, would then be officially dead.  You can’t have a great America when the majority of Americans are completely unworthy of the country they inherited.

  • roylofquist

    Mike,

    Please do not take this personally. I address you specifically because you expressed a sentiment that many have recently been voicing – that the American people, them others, are somehow inferior, ignorant sheeple because they brought this upon us. We, the aware wise ones, saw this coming and the proles failed to heed our warning. That attitude is the same ugly hubris we ascribe to the pointy headed intellectuals. 

    This attack on our country is totally outside our experience. As were Pearl Harbor and 9/11.  We have faced many challenges. We have seen cataclysms that have destroyed lesser peoples and endured, and prospered. Place your faith, as I have, in the greatest nation on God’s green earth. E Pluribus Unum. We will cast the demons into to wilderness and piss on their graves. November? Bring it on.

    Roy

    p.s., It relly isn’t personal. I have been agonizing over people whom I love dearly who have expressed the same fears as you.