According to Gallup, Romney has slipped from dead even to 6 points down in the last four or five days. It is debatable whether these day-to-day changes mean anything at all, but such a quick shift is pretty dramatic. It raises at least two questions, which I’m eager to hear your thoughts on. First, why the sudden shift? And, second, does it change your view of the likely outcome?
As to the first question, I had already mentioned to Book that I thought, at least here in Florida, that Obama’s ad campaign was much more effective than Romney’s. Obama has taken two of Romney’s ads (one about jobs moving to China and one about whether things have improved since 2008) and answered them directly and aggressively. Romney has not answered Obama’s ads at all. Perhaps we are seeing the effects of this.
As to the second question, last week, when Obama was clinging to a slim lead and Romney was gaining, I made a November prediction for the first time, telling Book that I expected Obama to win by five points. Such opinions are obviously subject to change without notice, depending, among other things, on the performances in the debates. But, for now, my opinion has not changed.
What do your think?
Sort of as a P.S., what do you think will happen in the House and Senate races?