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	<title>Comments on: The hypothesis fallacy; or please explain to me why EVERY scientific experiment (whether hard or social) needs a hypothesis</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/</link>
	<description>Conservatives deal with facts and reach conclusions; liberals have conclusions and sell them as facts.</description>
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		<title>By: Ron19</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151152</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron19</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jan 2013 03:01:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151152</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ Odds and Ends

&lt;strong&gt;It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment.&lt;/strong&gt;

Sherlock Holmes never had &quot;all&quot; the evidence; usually he had just barely enough to arrest a villain that confessed or did himself in.  Case Solved.

If you really want a light introduction to statistics, try &quot;Statistics for Dummies.&quot;

The &quot;science projects&quot; that grade school and high school teachers assign to students are usually as authentic as the Baking Soda Volcano project.

Most teachers K-12-post doc are clueless about statistics or scientific methods.  What they teach about it is worse than ignorance, and twice as dangerous.

If your kid does get interested in science on some subject, there are lots of organizations that will work with them in various ways, such as 4-H or a nearby college.

&quot;A man who acts as his own lawyer has a fool for a client.&quot;

Rush Limbaugh is not quite as good as he says he is on explaining science, finances, unemployment insurance, etc., but he is dyn-o-mite with lefty politics and agendas.  And he does let you know about good sources of information on the other subjects, such as Roy Spencer on global warning.

Once your interest is piqued about a topic or issue, you can wander around Amazon, doing searches and following book recommendations.

Wikipedia may not be is not reliable, but it can suggest things to check out elsewhere on the net.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> Odds and Ends</p>
<p><strong>It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment.</strong></p>
<p>Sherlock Holmes never had &#8220;all&#8221; the evidence; usually he had just barely enough to arrest a villain that confessed or did himself in.  Case Solved.</p>
<p>If you really want a light introduction to statistics, try &#8220;Statistics for Dummies.&#8221;</p>
<p>The &#8220;science projects&#8221; that grade school and high school teachers assign to students are usually as authentic as the Baking Soda Volcano project.</p>
<p>Most teachers K-12-post doc are clueless about statistics or scientific methods.  What they teach about it is worse than ignorance, and twice as dangerous.</p>
<p>If your kid does get interested in science on some subject, there are lots of organizations that will work with them in various ways, such as 4-H or a nearby college.</p>
<p>&#8220;A man who acts as his own lawyer has a fool for a client.&#8221;</p>
<p>Rush Limbaugh is not quite as good as he says he is on explaining science, finances, unemployment insurance, etc., but he is dyn-o-mite with lefty politics and agendas.  And he does let you know about good sources of information on the other subjects, such as Roy Spencer on global warning.</p>
<p>Once your interest is piqued about a topic or issue, you can wander around Amazon, doing searches and following book recommendations.</p>
<p>Wikipedia may not be is not reliable, but it can suggest things to check out elsewhere on the net.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron19</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151150</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron19</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jan 2013 02:03:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151150</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;My neighbor just told me she is going in tomorrow to get treated for breast cancer.
There sure is a lot of that going around!&quot;
Congratulations.  You&#039;ve just created a hypothesis.
If that&#039;s the end of it, you don&#039;t need the scientific method, research, government or non-government funding, or any of that stuff.  You already have your foregone conclusion.
On the other hand, if you did some research, and decided that Marin County has a higher breast cancer rate due to pill A than due to pill B, you now have the start of a plan for proving it, and becoming the next millionaire Erin Brockovich.  
Now you say that all else being equal in Marin County, your hypothesis is that pill A has a 50% higher cancer rate than pill B.  Then you design an experiment and a test to prove the hypothesis.  If your experiment and test do not prove your hypothesis, then you start over.
However, if from the time your neighbor told you about her breast cancer, you decide that pill A is the culprit and that you&#039;re going to design a rigged experiment to show everybody that the problem is pill A, what you&#039;re doing is not science, no matter how many times you say that it is.
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.scientificmethod.com/bpg06_basicsteps.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.scientificmethod.com/bpg06_basicsteps.html&lt;/a&gt;

There are charlatans just about everywhere you look.  I understand that you are a lawyer, Book.  Have you ever heard of a shady lawyer?  I have.  John Edwards comes to mind.   I know there are shady scientists.  The pharmaceutical companies I have worked with have fraud detection policies in effect, and aggressively investigate any hint of fraud that rears its head.  Their corporate lifeblood depends on doing honest research only.
From what little I know of legal practice, I think a scientific hypothesis is to a scientist what a legal brief is to a lawyer.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;My neighbor just told me she is going in tomorrow to get treated for breast cancer.<br />
There sure is a lot of that going around!&#8221;<br />
Congratulations.  You&#8217;ve just created a hypothesis.<br />
If that&#8217;s the end of it, you don&#8217;t need the scientific method, research, government or non-government funding, or any of that stuff.  You already have your foregone conclusion.<br />
On the other hand, if you did some research, and decided that Marin County has a higher breast cancer rate due to pill A than due to pill B, you now have the start of a plan for proving it, and becoming the next millionaire Erin Brockovich.  <br />
Now you say that all else being equal in Marin County, your hypothesis is that pill A has a 50% higher cancer rate than pill B.  Then you design an experiment and a test to prove the hypothesis.  If your experiment and test do not prove your hypothesis, then you start over.<br />
However, if from the time your neighbor told you about her breast cancer, you decide that pill A is the culprit and that you&#8217;re going to design a rigged experiment to show everybody that the problem is pill A, what you&#8217;re doing is not science, no matter how many times you say that it is.<br />
<a href="http://www.scientificmethod.com/bpg06_basicsteps.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.scientificmethod.com/bpg06_basicsteps.html</a></p>
<p>There are charlatans just about everywhere you look.  I understand that you are a lawyer, Book.  Have you ever heard of a shady lawyer?  I have.  John Edwards comes to mind.   I know there are shady scientists.  The pharmaceutical companies I have worked with have fraud detection policies in effect, and aggressively investigate any hint of fraud that rears its head.  Their corporate lifeblood depends on doing honest research only.<br />
From what little I know of legal practice, I think a scientific hypothesis is to a scientist what a legal brief is to a lawyer.</p>
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		<title>By: Linkdump &#171; Rhymes With Cars &#38; Girls</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151081</link>
		<dc:creator>Linkdump &#171; Rhymes With Cars &#38; Girls</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jan 2013 15:05:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151081</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] points out that the &#8216;hypothesis testing&#8217; conception of science, as taught to schoolchildren, makes no sense, and I agree. &#8216;First come up with a [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] points out that the &#8216;hypothesis testing&#8217; conception of science, as taught to schoolchildren, makes no sense, and I agree. &#8216;First come up with a [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Ymarsakar</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151067</link>
		<dc:creator>Ymarsakar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jan 2013 05:01:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A hypothesis was merely designed to lay out the framework of the idea, and to create an experiment to test that hypothesis&#039; conclusions. If things look solid, the hypothesis upgrades to a theory. If the theory is thus proven in an acceptable fashion, then it graduates to a law. But even while laws still exist and are used, even while better theories are out there, it&#039;s mainly because the experimental body is 100% in favor of laws, but not 100% in favor of theories. Even though theories might explain reality better in some ways. (Relativity vs Newtonian gravity)
 
The Left seeks to jump their hypothesis directly to a law, without any need for the intermediate steps and work required. That&#039;s basically about it. A means to an end: their end being the utopia where all of us belong to them as slaves. To clean up the environment, of course.
 ]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A hypothesis was merely designed to lay out the framework of the idea, and to create an experiment to test that hypothesis&#8217; conclusions. If things look solid, the hypothesis upgrades to a theory. If the theory is thus proven in an acceptable fashion, then it graduates to a law. But even while laws still exist and are used, even while better theories are out there, it&#8217;s mainly because the experimental body is 100% in favor of laws, but not 100% in favor of theories. Even though theories might explain reality better in some ways. (Relativity vs Newtonian gravity)<br />
 <br />
The Left seeks to jump their hypothesis directly to a law, without any need for the intermediate steps and work required. That&#8217;s basically about it. A means to an end: their end being the utopia where all of us belong to them as slaves. To clean up the environment, of course.<br />
 </p>
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		<title>By: Karl</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151046</link>
		<dc:creator>Karl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jan 2013 23:10:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151046</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The discussions I recall of the Scientific Method (capital letters carefully in place) included one step that seems to be missing here:  Notice something about the world around you and develop an idea about what may be going on.  So, for example, you may notice that people wearing green shirts seem to win more foot races than people wearing red shirts.
You might &lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;then&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/em&gt; propose an experiment where people are handed red or green shirts at random to see if that makes a difference in their performance in foot races.  Your hypothesis is that green shirts enable people to run faster.  (Or more generally, that the color of a shirt has an effect on a runner&#039;s performance.)  (And of course, the null hypothesis is that performance is independent of shirt color.)
But unless you had made that initial observation, you would have no reason to form your hypothesis in the first place.
FWIW, Wikipedia seems to &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Elements_of_the_scientific_method&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;concur&lt;/a&gt;:
 
&quot;Four essential elements&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-34&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[34]&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-35&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[35]&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-36&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[36]&lt;/a&gt; of the scientific method&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-37&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[37]&lt;/a&gt; are &lt;a title=&quot;Iteration&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iteration&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;iterations&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-38&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[38]&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-39&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[39]&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a title=&quot;Recursion&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursion&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;recursions&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-40&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[40]&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a title=&quot;Interleaving&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interleaving&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;interleavings&lt;/a&gt;, or &lt;a title=&quot;Partially ordered set&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partially_ordered_set&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;orderings&lt;/a&gt; of the following:

&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Characterizations&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Characterizations&lt;/a&gt; (observations,&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-41&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[41]&lt;/a&gt; definitions, and measurements of the subject of inquiry)
&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Hypothesis_development&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Hypotheses&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-42&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[42]&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-43&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[43]&lt;/a&gt; (theoretical, hypothetical &lt;a title=&quot;Explanation&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explanation&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;explanations&lt;/a&gt; of observations and measurements of the subject)&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-44&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[44]&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Predictions_from_the_hypothesis&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Predictions&lt;/a&gt; (&lt;a title=&quot;Reasoning&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reasoning&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;reasoning&lt;/a&gt; including &lt;a title=&quot;Logic&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logic&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;logical&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a title=&quot;Deductive reasoning&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deductive_reasoning&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;deduction&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-45&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[45]&lt;/a&gt; from the &lt;a title=&quot;Hypothesis&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;hypothesis&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a title=&quot;Theory&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;theory&lt;/a&gt;)
&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Experiments&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Experiments&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-46&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[46]&lt;/a&gt; (&lt;a title=&quot;Experiment&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experiment&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;tests&lt;/a&gt; of all of the above)&quot;

 
&quot;Characterization&quot; is the act of noticing something that hints at a possible cause-effect relationship.  Growing plants under a variety of different conditions could very easily be part of that step.
 
However, it seems to me, if a teacher insists on a formal statement of a hypothesis, a student is perfectly justified in offering the null hypothesis:  &quot;I hypothesize there will be no difference between the test group and the control group.&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The discussions I recall of the Scientific Method (capital letters carefully in place) included one step that seems to be missing here:  Notice something about the world around you and develop an idea about what may be going on.  So, for example, you may notice that people wearing green shirts seem to win more foot races than people wearing red shirts.<br />
You might <em><strong>then</strong></em> propose an experiment where people are handed red or green shirts at random to see if that makes a difference in their performance in foot races.  Your hypothesis is that green shirts enable people to run faster.  (Or more generally, that the color of a shirt has an effect on a runner&#8217;s performance.)  (And of course, the null hypothesis is that performance is independent of shirt color.)<br />
But unless you had made that initial observation, you would have no reason to form your hypothesis in the first place.<br />
FWIW, Wikipedia seems to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Elements_of_the_scientific_method" rel="nofollow">concur</a>:<br />
 <br />
&#8220;Four essential elements<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-34" rel="nofollow">[34]</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-35" rel="nofollow">[35]</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-36" rel="nofollow">[36]</a> of the scientific method<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-37" rel="nofollow">[37]</a> are <a title="Iteration" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iteration" rel="nofollow">iterations</a>,<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-38" rel="nofollow">[38]</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-39" rel="nofollow">[39]</a> <a title="Recursion" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursion" rel="nofollow">recursions</a>,<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-40" rel="nofollow">[40]</a> <a title="Interleaving" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interleaving" rel="nofollow">interleavings</a>, or <a title="Partially ordered set" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partially_ordered_set" rel="nofollow">orderings</a> of the following:</p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Characterizations" rel="nofollow">Characterizations</a> (observations,<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-41" rel="nofollow">[41]</a> definitions, and measurements of the subject of inquiry)<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Hypothesis_development" rel="nofollow">Hypotheses</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-42" rel="nofollow">[42]</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-43" rel="nofollow">[43]</a> (theoretical, hypothetical <a title="Explanation" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explanation" rel="nofollow">explanations</a> of observations and measurements of the subject)<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-44" rel="nofollow">[44]</a><br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Predictions_from_the_hypothesis" rel="nofollow">Predictions</a> (<a title="Reasoning" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reasoning" rel="nofollow">reasoning</a> including <a title="Logic" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logic" rel="nofollow">logical</a> <a title="Deductive reasoning" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deductive_reasoning" rel="nofollow">deduction</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-45" rel="nofollow">[45]</a> from the <a title="Hypothesis" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis" rel="nofollow">hypothesis</a> or <a title="Theory" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory" rel="nofollow">theory</a>)<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#Experiments" rel="nofollow">Experiments</a><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#cite_note-46" rel="nofollow">[46]</a> (<a title="Experiment" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experiment" rel="nofollow">tests</a> of all of the above)&#8221;</p>
<p> <br />
&#8220;Characterization&#8221; is the act of noticing something that hints at a possible cause-effect relationship.  Growing plants under a variety of different conditions could very easily be part of that step.<br />
 <br />
However, it seems to me, if a teacher insists on a formal statement of a hypothesis, a student is perfectly justified in offering the null hypothesis:  &#8220;I hypothesize there will be no difference between the test group and the control group.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Caped Crusader</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151012</link>
		<dc:creator>Caped Crusader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 21:32:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151012</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The most difficult commodity to obtain in this world are true scientific facts not influenced, either purposely or unintentionally, by the inquirers predudices.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The most difficult commodity to obtain in this world are true scientific facts not influenced, either purposely or unintentionally, by the inquirers predudices.</p>
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		<title>By: Caped Crusader</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151011</link>
		<dc:creator>Caped Crusader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 21:28:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151011</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Spartacus, what a wonderful explanation of the scientific method and how it works. It is too true and most do not have a twinkle in their eye, or even realize that they should have one! This is why @80% of scientific &quot;findings&quot; are later proven false. Most &quot;breakthrough&quot; scientific findings are born of random observation when something unusual happens and a person with a tenacious and scientific mind determines to find out &quot;why&quot; it happened. That was a brilliant teacher!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Spartacus, what a wonderful explanation of the scientific method and how it works. It is too true and most do not have a twinkle in their eye, or even realize that they should have one! This is why @80% of scientific &#8220;findings&#8221; are later proven false. Most &#8220;breakthrough&#8221; scientific findings are born of random observation when something unusual happens and a person with a tenacious and scientific mind determines to find out &#8220;why&#8221; it happened. That was a brilliant teacher!</p>
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		<title>By: Earl</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151008</link>
		<dc:creator>Earl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 20:56:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ 
GREAT story, Spartacus - I could have used your Geometry teacher back in the day!!
 
Caedmon: when it comes to the origin of things, it&#039;s true that by Popper&#039;s standards, neither Darwinism nor any other story is &quot;scientific&quot;, and we would all do well to remember this. 
 
On the other hand, MANY things within the larger Darwinian paradigm are indeed testable using experiments - some have been tested experimentally and have been supported.  Others, the ability of DNA mutations to produce useful information for example, have not been supported experimentally.  In fact, quite the opposite.  I don&#039;t notice that any modification of the Darwinian story has taken place as a result of this, though.  Which should tell us something.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> <br />
GREAT story, Spartacus &#8211; I could have used your Geometry teacher back in the day!!<br />
 <br />
Caedmon: when it comes to the origin of things, it&#8217;s true that by Popper&#8217;s standards, neither Darwinism nor any other story is &#8220;scientific&#8221;, and we would all do well to remember this. <br />
 <br />
On the other hand, MANY things within the larger Darwinian paradigm are indeed testable using experiments &#8211; some have been tested experimentally and have been supported.  Others, the ability of DNA mutations to produce useful information for example, have not been supported experimentally.  In fact, quite the opposite.  I don&#8217;t notice that any modification of the Darwinian story has taken place as a result of this, though.  Which should tell us something.</p>
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		<title>By: Don Quixote</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-151002</link>
		<dc:creator>Don Quixote</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 19:33:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-151002</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;p&gt;Book, you are right that a question as broad as &quot;Does what we eat&quot; can be tested today, what with computers to churn the data.  But, there are at least two limitations to such an approach.  First, you won&#039;t really be testing &quot;what we eat&quot;; you&#039;ll be testing that subset eaten by a significant portion of the study group.  I don&#039;t imagine you&#039;d have a statistically significant sample of grits eaters in Marin, for example, or chow mein eaters in the hills of West Virginia.  Second, massaging the data in hundreds of different ways will lead you to a lot of dead ends.  At the usual 95% significance rate, one of every 20 statistically significant relationships will turn out to be meaningless. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Owen G&#039;s point is an excellent one.  A bit of observation up front can help narrow the research substantially.  If your observations, or prior studies, have suggested that bacon might cause breast cancer, there is nothing wrong with a study to test that specific hypothesis, although the hypothesis would be stated much more objectively than you have it and the study would be objective as well.  The &quot;null&quot; hypothesis would be along the lines of &quot;there is no relationship between the amount of bacon consumed and the frequency of breast cancer.&quot;  That&#039;s a perfectly legitimate question.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Book, I suspect that more than distrusting the method, you distrust the people who are using it.  But don&#039;t blame the hammer for being a hammer.  Hammers are useful implements.  Blame the thug swinging it for breaking windows.  Or, in an analogy you will probably appreciate in light of your recent posts, don&#039;t blame the gun, blame the shooter.&lt;/p&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Book, you are right that a question as broad as &#8220;Does what we eat&#8221; can be tested today, what with computers to churn the data.  But, there are at least two limitations to such an approach.  First, you won&#8217;t really be testing &#8220;what we eat&#8221;; you&#8217;ll be testing that subset eaten by a significant portion of the study group.  I don&#8217;t imagine you&#8217;d have a statistically significant sample of grits eaters in Marin, for example, or chow mein eaters in the hills of West Virginia.  Second, massaging the data in hundreds of different ways will lead you to a lot of dead ends.  At the usual 95% significance rate, one of every 20 statistically significant relationships will turn out to be meaningless. </p>
<p>Owen G&#8217;s point is an excellent one.  A bit of observation up front can help narrow the research substantially.  If your observations, or prior studies, have suggested that bacon might cause breast cancer, there is nothing wrong with a study to test that specific hypothesis, although the hypothesis would be stated much more objectively than you have it and the study would be objective as well.  The &#8220;null&#8221; hypothesis would be along the lines of &#8220;there is no relationship between the amount of bacon consumed and the frequency of breast cancer.&#8221;  That&#8217;s a perfectly legitimate question.</p>
<p>Book, I suspect that more than distrusting the method, you distrust the people who are using it.  But don&#8217;t blame the hammer for being a hammer.  Hammers are useful implements.  Blame the thug swinging it for breaking windows.  Or, in an analogy you will probably appreciate in light of your recent posts, don&#8217;t blame the gun, blame the shooter.</p>
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		<title>By: Bookworm</title>
		<link>http://www.bookwormroom.com/2013/01/16/the-hypothesis-fallacy-or-please-explain-to-me-why-every-scientific-experiment-whether-hard-or-social-needs-a-hypothesis/comment-page-1/#comment-150999</link>
		<dc:creator>Bookworm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 18:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bookwormroom.com/?p=26180#comment-150999</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;p&gt;Thank you, everyone, for those interesting and fact-filled responses.  It seems that my problem isn&#039;t so much with the use of the scientific method as with the common misuse of that same method. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Don Quixote&#039;s point is also a good one, which is that a wide open question becomes useless because it makes it impossible to assemble meaningful data.  I&#039;d still prefer a narrow question (&quot;Does what we eat affect breast cancer rates?&quot;) to a careless and biased pre-answer (&quot;Bacon is the culprit.&quot;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One thing DQ&#039;s response made me realize is that I automatically assumed that, because we have computers, it&#039;s much easier to assemble and, even more importantly, sort data.  In the old days, 1,000 women describing their every meal for a year would generate an insane amount of data.  Nowadays, though, you can have them fill out a daily diary on the computer, that data is automatically put into a spreadsheet and, with the press of a button, you can sort the information in as many ways as you can imagine -- age, ethnicity, types of foods, etc.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The old hypothesis method, in a way, is predicated upon the great difficulty people used to have in making sense of lots of data.  That&#039;s simply not the case anymore.  Nevertheless, whether you have narrow, hand-sorted data, or massive amounts of machine-sorted data, the primary rule is always going to be &quot;garbage in, garbage out.&quot;  You still have to ask intelligent questions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I&#039;m starting to ramble, so I&#039;ll sign off here before I expose even more of my ignorance.&lt;/p&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you, everyone, for those interesting and fact-filled responses.  It seems that my problem isn&#8217;t so much with the use of the scientific method as with the common misuse of that same method. </p>
<p>Don Quixote&#8217;s point is also a good one, which is that a wide open question becomes useless because it makes it impossible to assemble meaningful data.  I&#8217;d still prefer a narrow question (&#8220;Does what we eat affect breast cancer rates?&#8221;) to a careless and biased pre-answer (&#8220;Bacon is the culprit.&#8221;).</p>
<p>One thing DQ&#8217;s response made me realize is that I automatically assumed that, because we have computers, it&#8217;s much easier to assemble and, even more importantly, sort data.  In the old days, 1,000 women describing their every meal for a year would generate an insane amount of data.  Nowadays, though, you can have them fill out a daily diary on the computer, that data is automatically put into a spreadsheet and, with the press of a button, you can sort the information in as many ways as you can imagine &#8212; age, ethnicity, types of foods, etc.</p>
<p>The old hypothesis method, in a way, is predicated upon the great difficulty people used to have in making sense of lots of data.  That&#8217;s simply not the case anymore.  Nevertheless, whether you have narrow, hand-sorted data, or massive amounts of machine-sorted data, the primary rule is always going to be &#8220;garbage in, garbage out.&#8221;  You still have to ask intelligent questions.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m starting to ramble, so I&#8217;ll sign off here before I expose even more of my ignorance.</p>
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