Comments on: World’s most stupid question

By: David Foster

David Foster — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 15:41:59 +0000

The author is arguing that nuclear weapons represent a very difficult management problem and that this is beyond Iran’s “chaotic” government.

But mismangement was rife both in Hitler’s Germany and and the Soviet Union of Stalin and his successors, and this did not stop those governments from creating some very advanced and deadly weapons.

By: weathtd

weathtd — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 13:19:24 +0000

Iraq’s “nonexistent weapons of mass destruction”? They did exist but we gave them 18 months to move them to Syria with Russian assistance. That was one of the biggest shell games in history. Better to be prepared ahead of time instead of playing “catch-up”. That’s the situation we’re in now in regards to EMP. No one in DC wants to acknowledge the potential disaster of doing nothing.

By: Mike Devx

Mike Devx — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 06:40:48 +0000

Thx Sadie and Spartacus! Sadie for the info that this guy is a political advocate of non-proliferation and cannot be trusted to be objective, and Spartacus for the reminder that we can be very unpleasantly surprised by a nation’s unexpected progress.

I file this fellow’s report under the heading of “Iran *might* not be as capable of producing a nuclear weapon as conventional wisdom might think.” Then I throw it in the garbage can – and wait for confirmation from other sources that Israeli security estimates of the Iranian threat have in fact been downgraded.

I am also reminded that security assessments can be driven, at times, solely by the political needs of the day and at those times have nothing to do with a realistic security assessment. Beware, be cautious, verify. Wait and see.

By: Spartacus

Spartacus — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 06:04:58 +0000

We discovered that Pakistan apparently had a nuclear program because the needle on a seismometer did something unexpected one day. That’s a bad way to learn that your intelligence estimates completely missed something important. Why everyone seems to think we will know right down to the minute when the Iranians are going to have their bomb ready absolutely escapes me.

The Mad Mullahs of Preacher Command have given Israel causus belli on days ending in ‘y’ since about 1979. Israel shows more restraint than wisdom in waiting, rather than kicking in the door with an EMP, doing the two hardened nuke production sites with tactical nukes (which are far less scary than most people think), and the two less-hardened sites with conventional munitions. The UN would vote to condemn them, but that also happens on days ending in ‘y,’ so no real change there.

A hot war between Israel and Iran as opposed to the current cold one may seem like “the devil we don’t know,” and thus less preferable. But a nuclear Iran is also a devil we don’t know, and almost certainly worse.

By: SADIE

SADIE — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 05:42:36 +0000

The author sits on the board of the CNS (Center for Nonproliferation Studies). The Monterey Institute of International Studies is the largest nongovernmental organization in the United States devoted exclusively to research & training to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). My Mom always used to say, “consider the source” – so I did. Stuxnet inhibited Iran’s program – I don’t consider that an intelligence failure by any measure.

By: Oldflyer

Oldflyer — Sat, 23 Feb 2013 05:00:22 +0000

Maybe his rant would make some sense if intelligence were an exact science; or even if it were more science than art. Since it is not, a smallish vulnerable country can err on only one side.
It does not require a rocket scientist to deduce this truth.