Egypt Open Thread

Okay, here’s what we know.

First, this was Obama:

Second, Morsi is the black knight:

Third, and now I’m getting serious, Egypt is either going to explode or the military will impose harsh military rule very quickly to prevent an explosion.  Morsi is under house arrest, which makes his refusal to step down more symbolic than real.  Nevertheless, as symbolism, he will continue as the leader for and inspiration to Islamists and other Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

Fourth, despite his fawning Cairo speech in 2009, the Egyptians really, really hate Obama — as well they should.  It was Obama’s utter failure of leadership two years ago that paved the way for the Islamist/Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt, a takeover that is both totalitarian and incompetent.  This time around, Obama’s patent support for the unpopular Morsi administration, followed by his leadership from behind (now that Morsi is obviously yesterday’s news, Obama is finally officially abandoning him), have led the Egyptians to realize what we on the right already figured out:  Obama is a weak man who does not like democratic values and, if given the choice, will always hew to dictators, the more Islamist the better.

Fifth, although Morsi was a bad leader, chaos in the Middle East’s most populous and most broke nation is not a good thing.  It’s also unclear now whether the military will abide by the peace treaty with Israel into which Sadat entered, or if Morsi was able to put enough Islamists in place that it will go even further than he did to ignore or entirely abandon the treaty.  There’s only a one in three chance of this turning out well for Israel.  These are the three options:  chaos and revolution, which is bad for Israel, since the only way to stop these revolutions is to find a scapegoat outside of Egypt; an Islamisized military, which is bad for Israel, because it may bring order to Egypt, but it will still attack Israel; or the military will abide by the peace treaty, which would be a good thing for Israel and for the rest of the Middle East.

I mentioned this was an open thread.  Please let me know what you think of what’s going on now and how you think things will turn out.

Gateway Pundit has pretty much real time updates about the speed with which the military is moving in Egypt.

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  • 11B40

    My thinking on that misbegotten corner of our planet has boiled down to two concepts:
    1)  Islam is the millstone. If your plan doesn’t include constraining, undermining, or eradicating Islam, you don’t have a plan. What you have is a hope.
    2)  As Fouad Ajami has written, those are the lands of “I against my brother; my brother and I against our cousin; and, my cousin, my brother, and I against the stranger.”  

  • cerumendoc

    The other issue to understand Obama’s dislike of the military and love of the Muslim Brotherhood is to understand that the Egyptian military, like most of the militaries in the Muslim world, are modeled after the British or American Army.  This very fact makes these institutions the most Western and un-Islamic institutions in the Muslim world.
    And, despite the corruption within the ranks of these militaries, they are institutions that still have some degree of meritocracy that makes them paragons of rectitude compared to the rest of Muslim society.  
    Very subversive to the mind of Obama, hell-bent on smashing any and all vestiges of Western Civilization.

  • David Foster

    I don’t think the Egyptian Army wants to fight Israel anytime soon…I mean, they might WANT to, but are sufficiently realistic to know that it would turn out badly for them…and doubt that they will be ramping up the rhetoric anytime soon.
    Their main issue in the immediate future will be where on earth do they get the money to import the food required to keep their population from literally starving to death…it does seem like Saudi Arabia will be their best/only option.
    The longer-term question is what if anything they can do to create something resembling a modern economy.