UPDATE: Sadly, the reports of Khamenei’s death appear to be premature.
It appears that Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, may be dead. What will this mean for Obama’s planned grand bargain?
I am insufficiently knowledgeable about the inner workings of Iran’s government to know whether the transition to a new “Supreme Leader” will be seamless, or whether we’ll see a resumption of the Green Revolution that our own Dear Leader Obama so assiduously ignored (and we know why now, don’t we?).
No matter how seamless the transition could be, the death of a high political official has a nasty habit of throwing the wrench into somebody’s works. This death is also a reminder that Iran is ruled by old men.
Do any of you know what the next generation is like? I’ve heard, although I couldn’t point to any authorities right now, that Iran’s up and coming generation is cynical, jaded, and irreligious. I find that easy to believe. Thirty-five years of religious dictatorship will do that to people. In England, when Cromwell died, the same English people who had embraced his revolution turned with relief to Charles II, the Merry Monarch.
Dream scenario: Those jaded, oppressed citizens use the opportunity of Khamenei’s death, assuming it’s real, to rise up and — to Hell with Obama — they throw the bastards out. With luck, the transition will be sufficiently chaotic to preclude either Grand Bargains with Obama or, even better, the new leadership will be uninterested in or unable to develop nuclear weapons.
I know. I know. My dreams are about as likely as seeing the Niners win the Super Bowl next year — but a girl can dream.