2018 Oscar Predictions
The Closet Conservative Critic
(Brief recap of who the Closet Conservative Critic is….C.C.C. is a 50-something “person of interest” who occasional writes on the Bookworm Blog, under the guise of the “Closet Conservative Critic”, reviewing Hollywood movies, and giving opinions with the perspective of a conservative. C.C.C. has worked in Hollywood and rubbed elbows with some of the most Liberal of the bunch. C.C.C. now lives in Marin County, and secretly lays low as a minority, in a bastion of limousine liberals)
Last year I made predictions for eight categories in the Oscars and correctly predicted five of them… given THAT as your barometer, consider your chances on using my predictions for any Las Vegas bets…
My predictions have nothing to do with my personal feelings about the movie… it’s simply an objective opinion based on 40 years of following the Oscars, 30 years of working in show biz, countless Oscar parties attended where the guests play the “WHO WILL WIN” pool, and just a gut feeling of the timing and sense of how the majority of the Academy will vote.
My personal picks however are clearly a subjective opinion, often times based on a political angle of how the filmmakers spun their stories or characters in this modern day media world of “Conservatives are bad …. We hate Trump”
SHOULD WIN: Darkest Hour
PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
The Darkest Hour was not my favorite movie of the year. (Coco was, followed by A Dogs Purpose, I Tonya, and Wonder) Yet, of the nominees it’s clearly my personal favorite. Winston Churchill saved England from the Nazis and did so with a great deal of in-house fighting with other politicians of Great Britain at the time. He was vilified as much as he was beloved. History has treated him much better than did his political opponents at the time. Add to that, among the many great quotes credited to him, one of my favorites is … “If you’re not Liberal at age 20 you don’t have a heart. If you’re not conservative at age 40, you don’t have a brain.” (* This quote has frequently been questioned as to having been said by Churchill, but it’s great fodder, and it sounds like something he could have said…)
I just saw The Shape of Water this week. It’s overrated, really quite silly and very bizarre. Yet, it’s the darling of the critics. It’s produced by a very talented Mexican filmmaker. Look for the Academy to give the Oscar this year to Shape of Water, and they’ll be just hoping this Mexican producer comes up on stage and will wave the Mexican flag, and rag on Trump.
SHOULD WIN: Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
PREDICTION: Guillermo de Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig directed a charming, heart-warming movie that’s a bonding story of a mother and daughter. In spite of a few digs at President Regan, it’s quite fair and gentle toward the Catholic religion. More than a few Nuns and Priests are portrayed as very sympathetic characters and as real humans in the movie. Greta could win, given that Hollywood would love to see a woman director win. However, in the fight for victimhood status, the Mexican director will win over the woman. Guillermo will win for the same reasons mentioned above about the Shape of Water for best picture.
SHOULD WIN: Margo Robbie – I, Tonya
PREDICTION: Frances McDormand -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
How does one make Tonya Harding remotely likable? Margo Robbie’s performance is flawless. Playing the role of the trailer trash, foul-mouthed Olympic Ice Skater, Robbie plays down her own good looks, and plays up the low-life, brain-dead Tonya Harding. She may win, but my money is on Frances McDormand for Three Billboards. Her role as the heartbroken mother of a murdered daughter is terrific. While we sympathize with her in one scene, we are cringing in the next for some downright mean or immoral action her character will take.
SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman: Darkest Hour
PREDICTION: Gary Oldman: Darkest Hour
Each year there is one category where the actor is considered a lock to win. He/She plays the role of a character that they BECOME and follow (generally) a very well written script that allows them to push the envelope. Gary Oldman, in a very DeNiro like way, BECOMES Churchill. He looks, sounds, and probably smells like Winston Churchill. A great performance, in a great movie, about a great man.
Best Supporting Actress
SHOULD WIN: Allison Janney – I, Tanya
PREDICTION: Allison Janney – I Tanya
Again, like my pick and prediction for Oldman in Darkest Hour, my thoughts on Allison Janney as Tonya Hardings mother are similar. My personal favorite, AND my pick to win. Playing the role of the worst Mother of the Year, she never comes off as sympathetic, yet every moment she’s on the screen you can’t take your eyes off her. You are continually shaking your head that a mother could be so cruel and so nasty, both emotionally and physically. Janney often plays roles where her characters have a snarky edge. She was born to play this roll as Tonya’s mother.
Best Supporting Actor
SHOULD WIN: Sam Rockwell: Three Billboards
PREDICTION: William Dafoe: The Florida Project
Like Robbie in I, Tanya, Rockwell takes on the roll of a charming scumbag. One minute he’s an evil racist, and the next a charming nim-whit. For a movie that had very few people to “like”, he, McDormand, and Woody Harrelson bring flawed humans, with complex emotions to the screen. Rockwell or Harrelson could win, yet I see their votes being split, leaving room for the long-shot, underdog, William Dafoe to win. His roll in the Florida Project is under sung, and under-rated.
Best Original Screenplay
SHOULD WIN: The Big Sick
PREDICTION: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
I Loved The Big Sick! I’m a sucker for feel-good movies where all the characters are likeable, and they just need to fine-tune their ways so all is well in the happy-lovable universe. I don’t need complex, complicated, traumatized, demented, dark characters to enjoy a movie. Give me The Big Sick. YET, the dark side of the human character seems to appeal more to the Academy, so look for Three Billboards to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
SHOULD WIN: Don’t care…. Did not see any of the five nominated movies…
Why Mudbound? Just a hunch…
Best Animated Picture
SHOULD WIN: Coco
This category is quite imbalanced… Two of the animated movies in this category nobody ever saw, and the other two are so light and meaningless that it will be Coco in a landslide. And, justly so. The movie was fantastic in every conceivable way. Funny, semimetal, cute, worldly, great music, culturally informative, great colors, editing, visual effects and animation movement. Pixar continues to break new ground, and their charming and FUN stories know no bounds. Will win, and should win.
Semi Final Prediction:
At least five of the winners will jump up on stage, and after thanking their wives and mothers, will offer us their annoying, and unsolicited options on the world and politics. Guaranteed the options will be Left-Wing Liberal-Drivel.
Final Prediction… it’s 100% assured that I won’t be watching the broadcast. For 35+ years I never missed. While working in the entertainment industry, it was always fun to gather with co-workers and see the glamour and excitement Oscars. Beginning in the George Bush era, there were just one too many pompous winners giving their options that half of American didn’t care about or agree with. Given Hollywood’s hysteria and hatred of President Trump, I have checked out from having any interest the Academy Awards. This Deplorable will find something else to do with his Sunday evening.