Gallup has now split their results into registered voters and likely voters. Obama leads among registered voters but Romney leads among likely voters. When I predicted Obama would win, I said the one thing that could change the outcome is the debates. So far, so good. Here’s hoping the remaining debates go as well.
One school of thought suggests that adhering to a stronger conservative position benefits the Republican party. Another says that the best way to appeal to crucial middle-of-the-road voters is to adopt a middle-of-the-road position on the issues. This article contends that the tea party efforts on behalf of the first viewpoint have damaged the Republican “brand,” hurt Romney’s chances and strengthened Obama’s position.
Let me just add that the last two presidential candidates to take relatively pure ideological positions (Goldwater and McGovern) failed badly. I suppose the results in 2010, while not a Presidential election, could be cited as a counter-example. Your thoughts?
According to Gallup, Romney has slipped from dead even to 6 points down in the last four or five days. It is debatable whether these day-to-day changes mean anything at all, but such a quick shift is pretty dramatic. It raises at least two questions, which I’m eager to hear your thoughts on. First, why the sudden shift? And, second, does it change your view of the likely outcome?
As to the first question, I had already mentioned to Book that I thought, at least here in Florida, that Obama’s ad campaign was much more effective than Romney’s. Obama has taken two of Romney’s ads (one about jobs moving to China and one about whether things have improved since 2008) and answered them directly and aggressively. Romney has not answered Obama’s ads at all. Perhaps we are seeing the effects of this.
As to the second question, last week, when Obama was clinging to a slim lead and Romney was gaining, I made a November prediction for the first time, telling Book that I expected Obama to win by five points. Such opinions are obviously subject to change without notice, depending, among other things, on the performances in the debates. But, for now, my opinion has not changed.
What do your think?
Sort of as a P.S., what do you think will happen in the House and Senate races?
While perhaps not reflecting the striking numbers most readers here would like to see, it is noteworthy that Gallup reports that more Obama voters are leaving him that McCain voters are leaving Romney.
Bookworm will be back in town tonight, so my stay here is done.
Thanks to Danny and Sadie and Marica and Bizcor for posts and ideas, and to everyone who took the time to post such informed and civil coments.
Bookworm has done a great job building a blog worth visiting and has been rewarded with a terrific group of visitors.
May America survive through it all. And may each of you enjoy the lives you desire.
All the best,
According to charts shown by Republican committee staff members during the hearing, Amtrak charges about $2 for a soft drink, but the cost to taxpayers is about $3.40 when labor is included. A $9.50 hamburger on the train costs taxpayers $16, the charts showed. Labor adds nearly 60 percent to food and beverage costs.
DQ here. I’m not so much upset about the train, as I am about the cost of decades of delay in actually doing anything to build it. As for paying for it, looks like I’m leaving California just in time.
Bizcor sent me this idea for a post (Thank you):
“Obama has an app for iPhone that identifies the registered Democrats at the phones location. http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/08/04/obama-campaign-mobile-app-reveals-which-of-your-neighbors-are-registered-dems/”
That reminded me of the several political campaigns I’ve been involved in. In the old days, a campaign would buy voter lists, identifying voters by party affiliation, address and phone number. It could then use these to plan its door-to-door and phone campaigning. The Obama app sounds like an updated, electronic age version of the same lists. If he’s smart, Romney will have the same app. In fact, I suppose all campaigns, right down to the local level, will soon have them. What, if any, significance do you see in such instant access?
AP reports another study on global warming. Interestingly, the AP report is fairly balanced, and even ends with a comment by a person on the other side.
Personally, I’m too ignorant of the science to have any idea who’s right. But let me suggest a couple of layperson thoughts.
First, it seems extremely unlikely that we could develop the way we have, burning fossil fuel that took millions of years to create, releasing huge amounts of greenhouse gasses, without having some effect on our environment.
Second, it seems equally unlikely that a small increase in the global temperature would result in a large increase in the number of major heatwaves. This would only make sense if one also established that the small increase also resulted in greater termperature volitility.
What do you folks think of the latest report and the effort to attribute the latest heatwaves and droughts to global warming?
Let her explain:
it’s time for a Mid-Summer Song or Something Festival dedicated to POTUS. If you’re not musically inclined, please chime in with a poem, an ‘ode’ maybe a limerick – aw heck, arrange the words and message to send a message. Obviously, after three and a half years we know he’s tone deaf to op/eds, 150+ conservative blogs, reality….he is, however, very fond of fundraising – so let’s begin with some “fun” raising.
Opened my morning paper to find this column by Jim Litke. In this emperor-has-no-clothes account, Litke describes the inclusion of utterly unqualified token Arab women at the Olympics as the sham that it is. I was struck by two things. First, the contrast between this account and NBC’s craven coverage of these tokens as major breakthroughs (It is not important that she did not finish; what is important is that she is here at all. It is not important she did not win; she will inspire little girls in her country to take up judo. Yada, yada, yada.). Second, Litke writes for the AP. Who would have thought the AP would allow such non-PC comments to appear under its banner?
When the Olympics started I asked the Bookwormroom readers how interested they were and the answers were lukewarm at best. Yet, the television ratings for the Olympics have been extremely strong. For example, at 10:00 on Thursday night, the Olympic ratings were over 10 times those for the next highest show — 43.2 million viewers to 3.8 million. To what do you attribute such widespread interest? And to what do you attribute the contrast between the high general interest and the low interest of commenters here?