In about 24 hours from now, the first polls will close in the midterm elections. About four to five hours after that, we will know whether there was the predicted blue wave, a barely noticeable whitecap, or a surprise red wave. Time for you to prognosticate.
There is an old joke: In heaven, the government is British, the French are the cooks, the Germans are the mechanics, and the Italians are the police. In hell, the British are the cooks, the French run the government, the Italians are the mechanics and the Germans are the police. I’ll put an American spin on that. Hell is where Crazy Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House, Low IQ Maxine Waters runs the Financial Services Committee, and Adam Schiff for Brains runs the Intelligence Committee. Unfortunately for our country, that is a real possibility, not a punch line.
All other things being equal, the history of midterm elections is that whichever party holds the Presidency will lose seats. As it stands today:
Current: Republicans hold a 4 seat majority, 52 to 48.
To Change the Majority: Dem’s will need a net pick up of 3 seats.
Elections this cycle: There are 26 Democratic seats and 9 Republican seats up for election in 2018. The map is horrid for Democrats as 10 of the Dems up for reelection are in states won by Trump in 2016.
Current: Republicans hold 235 seats to 193 for Democrats. 218 seats are need for a majority.
To Change the Majority: Democrats will need a net pick up of 25 seats.
Elections the cycle: Every two years, all 435 voting seats are up for election.