Recent poll numbers show that Obama will be hard to beat

A couple of days ago, I asked if the polls show a Bradley effect, with people deploring Obama’s performance, but still being too embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they don’t like America’s first white-black president.  Most of you disagreed with me, saying (as DQ did) that Leftists will support Obama no matter what, while other people are just unwilling to dislike the president.  That is, they’re not lying to pollsters when they profess a fondness for this failure.  They mean it.  Keith Koffler certainly thinks they mean it, and that this is going to be a problem for Romney:

President Obama has been at 50 percent approval in the Gallup daily tracking poll for the past two days, a sign that his popularity has genuinely increased since its lows last summer when he had creeped down to 38 percent.

In addition, Gallup finds that Obama leads Romney by seven points, 49-42 percent, with the president’s position improving lately among independents.

That half the country approves of the job Obama suggests not only that he will be tough to beat. It indicates many people are willing to support Obama no matter what the economic conditions, and that some strategist within the West Wing knows what they’re doing.

Think about this. Unemployment is above 8 percent. The economy is sluggish. Iran is on the verge of a nuclear capability. Gas prices are a $4 per gallon. The president has no plan to fix anything. And yet one out of two people think he’s doing a good job.

Read the rest here.

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  • stanley

    “And yet one out of two people think he’s doing a good job” And about 1 out of 2 people don’t pay taxes. I would like to see a poll of how many of these 1 out of 2 people voting for Obama collect a government check or work for a business that gets government funding (state and local governments, research, defense contractors, education). 10,000 people retiring everyday. About 7 months to election X 30 days/mo = 2,100,000 people collecting a govt check or health benefits. And all of them eligible to vote.

  • MacG

    Leftists decry the right for being idealogically driven yet they are the ones who voted for a guy because he was just black enough.

    Speaking of taxes I read where the Californian that make $48k a year pays a higher State income tax than millionaires do in 47 other states.  Maybe our State money problems are revenue problems but once you step on the toothpaste tube how do you get it back in the tube?  You have to cut the tube wide open to refill it which is how it got filled in the first place.  Or we can just pitch the tube into the recycle bin and fence off California as a nature reserve.




    Not all “faults” in California have names, but you could start with renaming the big one – San AnDemocrat. 😉

  • Charles Martel

    I compare whatever the outcome in November to taking a bandage off a hairy arm. No matter what speed you do it at, there’s pain involved.
    The question for me is which is the fast rip and which is the slow tear: Obama getting ousted or Obama being given the final go-ahead to complete his destruction?
    I suppose that him being re-elected would be the fast rip, simply because he would preside over the quick, final collapse of our institutions. The people who vote for him because he is the Supreme Dolester, the Welfarefex Maximus, would soon enough see a radical decline in their living standards and probably take to the streets, Greek snit-style, to get them magically restored. End of the republic as the authorities rush to trample the remnants of the Constitution in the name of restoring order.
    The slower go would be ejecting the bastard and setting about taking the academy, media, federal judiciary, mainline Protestantism, Reform Judaism, and Congress and restoring them to some level of decency. The problem then would be how to tell the millions of people who have never found their way past a welfare mentality that the free ride is over without tearing our country apart.
    Perhaps the quick collapse—Obama’s return to the White House—would be better, much like having your girlfriend not beat around the bush but simply come right out and say, “Chuck, I’ve been screwing the Marine Corps. I’ll understand if you want to call off the wedding.”

  • BrianE

    Romney will have to tread lightly, since most Americans consider the President a likable guy. He is taking the approach that Obama is a nice guy who’s over his head.

    I think that approach makes sense, since it’s not an attack on Obama, but merely on his effectiveness.

    On the other hand, I caught a view minutes of Anderson Cooper last night, where Paul Begala called Romney a liar and when Bay Buchanan called him on it, be wouldn’t back down, though finally reduced his accusation to a fib.

    That is going to be one of the democrat attacks– that Romney is a liar. 


    “going to be one of the democrat attacks– that Romney is a liar.”

        “Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive…” [Joe Plugs]

    Me thinks they better take a different tact.    

  • Ymarsakar

    Remember, Civil War within a decade if Obama gets 2nd term. Count on it.

  • Mike Devx

    A Democrat in Congress recently said that all those people on food stamps will vote for Obama solely to ensure that they will continue to get all of that food stamp money – or more!

    We’ve been saying that when more than half of your people are dependent on the Government and its redistributed money, they will vote to continue the redistribution (and increase it)  They will overtax those who still produce – and that will reduce the number of producers even more.  It’s a downward spiral, and we know where it ends up.

    It’s nice to see the Democrats – well, one of them at least – admit the strategy.  MAybe they think that somehow, someway – magical thinking! – we will somehow manage NOT to end up in a collapse.  Somehow, someway… they don’t have a clue how, but maybe they’re just hoping.  Magical thinking.


  • Mike Devx

    Charles M, you have it right in #4. I’ll add this.

    You know how drivers will always slow down near a wreck, and rubberneck? If Obama is re-elected, those of us who see clear will slow down and rubberneck in fascination, as we watch the Great American Car Wreck happen all around us. It will have a horrifying fascination. It will last the entire four years. Week after week, there will be something new, and bad, to rubberneck at.

    It disturbs me that we are being trained like Pavlov’s dogs to respond to the government bell.  I know where Obama has always wanted to go, and I know that every time he doesn’t go there, he’s just throwing us a bone so he can geet re-elected.  Today he withdrew his support for the farm legislation preventing farm kids from working.  Those families should REMAIN angry – we know where Obama’s heart is at.  We know what he wants.  But he’s ringing the bell again, and how many of those families, instead of remaining angry, will respond with excitement and gratefulness?  He is pandering to them purely for votes, yet how many of them will be absurdly grateful?

    They and we need to remember: Once Obama is reelected, he no longer needs those votes.  As he told Putin’s stooge in that hot-mic moment, just wait until after he’s re-elected.  Then he’ll get to do many more of the things he REALLY wants to do.

    And the Great American Car Wreck will unfold all around us for four years.  

    Ymar, as to your civil war, it probably depends on what would happen AFTER the next four years of Obama.  What state of mind will the people be in after that four years?  Would they want another Obama?  Would they (finally) be ready for an anti-Obama? 

  • Earl

    The polls are being used, folks.  They want people to be discouraged.
    Someone today was talking about these, but I can’t remember who – Rush, Sean, or Hugh Hewitt.  The “winner” for Obama is the general – Do you think the President is doing a good job? 
    But when people are asked specifically “Who do you trust with the economy?” Romney is on top.  “Who do you trust with security?” Romney wins.  Etc.
    Those aren’t being reported, but the information is available to those who know how to get it – I don’t.  So, I listen to the talk radio guys I trust.


    Earl, you have a good point, if the backlash in the comment section from Karl Rove is any indicator [see link below]. Best to dismiss the polls and talking heads, it’s a long road until November and the LEFT will continue to preach to the LEFT and the conservatives already understand reality. Like many elections, it will be up to the independents sitting on the fence who will determine if they are enjoying the splinters in their arse or are ready to get the tweezers. 
    Rove’s Electoral College Map: Obama 220, Mitt 93

  • Gringo

    Mike Devx #8
    A Democrat in Congress recently said that all those people on food stamps will vote for Obama solely to ensure that they will continue to get all of that food stamp money – or more!
    Democrats vote for food stamps. Republicans vote for jobs.

  • Ymarsakar

    Mike Devx, what I mean by Civil War is that after 4 more years of obama, there will be no turning back and there will be irreconcilable differences in the US, leading to a divorce. Couples break up all the time, why not nations? Because people waited too long to fix things, then when they noticed, they couldn’t fix them any more. So no, it won’t matter if people are ready for the anti Left because under another 4 years of Leftist tyranny, they will be left no choice but war.


  • Charles Martel

    “. . . it will be up to the independents sitting on the fence who will determine if they are enjoying the splinters in their arse or are ready to get out the tweezers.”
    SADIE, you always have a way of getting to the bottom of things.

  • Charles Martel

    I agree with Ymarsakar that the re-election of Barack Obama will end in civil war. He will press, as Mike Devx has pointed out, to accelerate the deconstruction of our republic. The great problem he will face is that there are simply too many well-armed, fed-up citizens for his leftist goons to handle. So, with luck, we may avoid a shooting war if Obama will be content with what Ymarsakar sees, namely the dissolution of the Union and a “you go your way, we’ll go our way” outcome. Whether done peacefully or bloodily, he will have accomplished his goal: the end of the United States of America.
    If so, get ready for America’s own Indian Partition-style mass migration as millions of people leave the blue states and head for the South, Texas, and the Far West. If I’m still alive, I will be among them.
    Ironic to think that the South may finally have its secessionist victory one day, only this time as the side of the non-racist non-reactionaries.


    They’re not taking “no” for an answer. I’ve read that 30,000 are planned for the near future.

       Here is a Map of your new 63+ US Drones bases : Deadline Live …



  • Mosonny

    The food stamp thing is the good ol’ Cloward-Piven strategy writ large. It wasn’t a figment of the Right’s imagination, that harridan and her husband really wanted to destroy the US with too many folks on the welfare rolls. 

    I do agree Obama will be hard to beat, but not impossible, not at all.  Not even all the food stamp recipients are pleased.  And I’ve yet to meet anyone who voted for Obama in 2008 who would vote for him again except for the most die-hard Dem/Leftists.  The normal fence-sitters and “independents”, or the Repubs who voted against Bush because they were sick of him too, or believed he had brought on the economic woes of the country…and I know this is not exactly a scientific poll…but I can find no one who believes O has done a decent job.

    I know blacks that believe he’s been a catastrophe.  Whites who are fearful and tired of the accusations of racism.  They are NOT racists, or weren’t, but feel like the O admin has been extremely divisive.  No one I know feels any more comfortable than they did in 2008 economically, even though things have calmed down superficially. 

    I believe the real issue now is if the Republicans and specifically Romney can grow a pair and show some spark they didn’t against O in 2008…McCain was horrible.  And, can act as if other than the Scarecrow singing “If I only had a brain”….they’ve been given so much material they could use against the O, and they will choose to let the Dems name the strategies, out of fear. 

    If Mitt can learn to speak more to the people, and overcome his own problems…I think he could EASILY handle this election. I think he has a real chance, too, because I think he’s a lot more vicious than McCain (whether good or bad) and is starting to say the right things in his speeches.  He has time and his party can start going the right direction, but they could also self-destruct.  They already KNOW there will be fraud and dirty tricks, so they just have to counteract them.  Forewarned is forearmed and all that. 

    So, do it.  Get the good help and good ads and raise the monies and pound the streets, and Mitt, keep your feet out of your mouth, and….use O’s own words and actions against the O.  He CAN and SHOULD be easily beaten, as he’s a phenomenally bad POTUS

  • Earl

    Exellent analysis (IMO), Monsonny.
    Never underestimate the power of the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – but THAT is what will beat them in 2012, if something does.
    Romney doesn’t seem to care as much about the opinions of the Beltway punditry or the opposition politicians as McCain did, and that’s a good sign.  If he’s half as willing to dig (and then spread) the dirt on the POTUS as he was on his primary opponents, then we’ll finally see a bit of “vetting” of the O.
    If he avoids chasing the “rabbits” the Dems and the media (but I repeat myself) keep loosing for him, and cheerfully focuses on the President’s words and the President’s performance, then he’ll win.
    So, I’m cautiously optimistic in a way that I simply was NOT four years ago.

  • teekeemon

    Frankly, if a Republican President saw the fall of Qaddafi and Mubarak, the deaths of Anwar al-Awlaki and Osama bin Laden, saved the auto industry, headed off another Great Depression, ended the Iraq War, presided over a Dow Jones 3yr rally from sub-7000 to over 13,300… AND had 25 straight months of private sector job growth (4 million jobs)… the conservatives would have chiseled his big white ass into Mt Rushmore by now.
    There’s a damn good reason people approve of him.

    This author quoted says… “The president has no plan to fix anything.”

    That’s pure malarkey.  The GOP has put up a 60 vote hurdle for every plan the President has put forward.  Their interest is regaining power… not helping struggling Americans… and Americans largely get who is on their side. Romney is professing the same solutions McCain did. Bush policies. #FAIL

    Obama = Net positive +5.0
    Romney =  Net negative -4.8

  • teekeemon

    What are the odds that ALL these electoral maps are incorrect?
    Even Karl Rove’s map…?

    Electoral Maps – Pollster .com –
    Obama 288 || Romney 170
    Electoral Maps – RCP –
    Obama 227 || Romney 170
    Electoral Maps – 270toWin .com –
    Obama 227 || Romney 191
    Electoral Maps – CNN –
    Obama 196 || Romney 159
    Electoral Maps – Intrade –
    Obama 250 || Romney 146
    Electoral Maps – NPR –
    Obama 242 || Romney 191
    Electoral Maps – KarlRove –
    Obama 289 || Romney 172