Nervous Democrats

From the San Francisco Chronicle (with the emphasis all theirs):

Worth noting: Democrats had good reason to be nervous going into the Denver convention – and the problem looked to be bigger than just the bruised feelings between the Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton camps.

Recent polls of California voters show that going into Denver, Obama’s support among key independent voters had dropped nine points in a month – cutting his lead over John McCain to less than 10 points in this bluest of blue states.

A poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California showed Obama’s lead over McCain dropping to 48 percent to 39 percent among all likely voters – down six points from July.

Obama is still comfortably ahead of McCain statewide, and institute pollster Mark Baldassare noted that a Republican hasn’t carried California since the first George Bush in 1988- so odds are Obama will still take the state.

Nonetheless, the Democrats might well heed that the race has narrowed to single digits.

Four years ago, before the Democrats held their convention, John Kerry had an 11-point advantage over George W. Bush here in California, according to Baldassare’s polling – about where Obama’s lead was before his convention last week.

And while Kerry eventually won California, we all know who took the big prize.

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  • 11B40


    There’s something about Election 2008 that I find puzzling. In spite of Senator Obama’s somewhat vacuous attempts to run against President Bush’s record, Senator McCain seems uninterested in running against the Reid/Pelosi Democratic Congress. Now, I seem to recollect Senator Reid’s “the war in Iraq is lost” and First Woman Speaker of the House Pelosi’s no drilling, no where, no how, and yet Senator McCain only seems to mention his specific competitor.

    You have mentioned your involvement with the local McCain campaign. Is there no sense of his leading the Republican Party in regard to the various Congressional contests.

  • Charlie (Colorado)

    Oh, I’m just having so much fun watching the Democrats still not getting their feet under them.

  • Ymarsakar

    Democrats are mean and they deserve getting smashed on the nose.

  • dg

    Polls are not as good as predictors as decision markets. There is still a healthy lead for the Obama campaign in all of the decision markets. The supposedly left-biased media keeps talking (out of ignorance) as if this race is close. It is not. McCain is in trouble and the GOP is nervous. Attacks on Obama are not working, which is why the smart money (actually, the only money) betting on election outcomes is still giving Obama a huge lead. Check it out at Yahoo on their election map, where you can select “markets” to see that lead.

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