Simple truths and global warming
Danny L. sent me a link to a fine discussion at Flopping Aces of what amount to attempts to censor those who disagree that human caused global warming is a problem. Just an hour earlier, I had read a story from the front page of my local paper of efforts by Dick Cheney to censor those who agree that humans cause global warming. Yesterday, I read an article that said that 90% of the world’s glaciers are shrinking.
If ever there were an issue that is fact-intensive, amenable to tests of truth, and critical not to politicize it is global warming. All of the basic issues are pure issues of fact. Either the ozone layer is shrinking or it is not. Either the earth is warming or it is not. Either greenhouse gas levels are rising or they are not. Either glaciers are shrinking or they are not. Either sea levels are rising or they are not.
If these things are not happening, then there is no problem and we can all relax. If these things are happening (and it certainly appears they are), it becomes critical to determine (as a factual matter) whether the changes are part of normal cycles or part of a long-term change in climate. If they are part of normal cycles, we should monitor them closely, but we can probably relax a bit. If we can’t determine whether they are part of normal cycles, or if we determine that they are part of a long-term change in climate, we need to figure out what to do about it.
Of course, to figure out what to do about it, it would help to understand what is causing it, but that is not absolutely necessary. To illustrate this, let’s say we determine that global warming is continuing and it threatens to flood out coastal communities and even threatens to cause the Earth to end up as a second Venus. Let’s assume further that the problem is an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We can fix the problem by reducing the sources of the greenhouse gases, if we can determine what those sources are. Or, we can develop technologies to remove greenhouses gases from the atmosphere. This would remedy the problem, no matter what its source.
We should not surpress evidence, inhibit the free exchange of information and opinions, or otherwise discourage the search for the truth. We should not leap to conclusions, either. We should not act immediately, without knowing what actions are necessary or helpful. On the other hand, we should not bury our heads in the sand and do nothing. It does appear that greenhouse gases are increasing, that glaciers are shrinking and that temperatures are rising. The ultimate stakes are far too important for us to play either the Luddite or the ostrich.
What facts can anyone share that would shed light on the problem? And how can we insure that this problem is taken seriously and not politicized to death?
