Place Your Bets

In about 24 hours from now, the first polls will close in the midterm elections.  About four to five hours after that, we will know whether there was the predicted blue wave, a barely noticeable whitecap, or a surprise red wave.  Time for you to prognosticate.

There is an old joke:  In heaven, the government is British, the French are the cooks, the Germans are the mechanics, and the Italians are the police.  In hell, the British are the cooks, the French run the government, the Italians are the mechanics and the Germans are the police.  I’ll put an American spin on that.  Hell is where Crazy Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker of the House, Low IQ Maxine Waters runs the Financial Services Committee, and Adam Schiff for Brains runs the Intelligence Committee.  Unfortunately for our country, that is a real possibility, not a punch line.

All other things being equal, the history of midterm elections is that whichever party holds the Presidency will lose seats.  As it stands today:


Current:  Republicans hold a 4 seat majority, 52 to 48.

To Change the Majority:  Dem’s will need a net pick up of 3 seats.

Elections this cycle:  There are 26 Democratic seats and 9 Republican seats up for election in 2018.   The map is horrid for Democrats as 10 of the Dems up for reelection are in states won by Trump in 2016.


Current:  Republicans hold 235 seats to 193 for Democrats.  218 seats are need for a majority.

To Change the Majority:  Democrats will need a net pick up of 25 seats.

Elections the cycle:  Every two years, all 435 voting seats are up for election.


Are the polls trustworthy this election cycle?  They were certainly wrong at key points in 2016.  Nate Silver, perhaps the most respected of the national pollsters, states that Republicans have an 81% chance of holding the Senate.  There is an 80% probability that the results will be somewhere between a net gain of 2 seats for Democrats or a net gain of 4 for Republicans.  Either scenario means that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.  As to the House, Silver states that the Democrats have an 80% chance of capturing between 21 and 59 seats, with the most likely scenario being a net pick up of 39 seats.

Into the Mix:

There are at least three issues impacting this midterm election that make it unique.  One of course is that the Progressive left and their media arm are doing their best to whip our nation into a frenzy because they are not in power.  They are highly motivated.  But, but, but . . . Trump has delivered on the economy, taking us in two years to the best economy seen in decades, particularly for minorities, and particularly for those in the lowest economic class.  That is hard to run away from.  Then there is the Kavanaugh effect.  Will it still linger and motivate people to vote to stop the amoral, anti-Constitutional and autocratic progressives willing to use dirty tricks and dispense with due process for political gain?

Lastly, there is early voting.  I cannot remember a midterm election where Republicans ever dominated early voting in virtually all of the battleground states, and yet that appears to be the case this year.  That certainly suggests that Silver’s polls either may be off or that the end result will be at the far end of “80%” odds in favor of Republicans.

My Prediction:

Given the early voting numbers, I just do not see any sort of blue wave in the offing.  My guess is that Republicans will see their Senate numbers either stay the same or increase by 2 to 3 seats.  In the House, I do not think the Democrats will gain the 25 seats they need to retake the majority, though they will come close.  I do not think it possible for the progs and their media arm to dial up the vitriol, wailing and gnashing of teeth to 12, but I expect they will try beginning about 00:01 on 7 Nov.   We’re going to need ear plugs — and perhaps eye bleach — to make it to 2020 with our hearing, eyesight, and sanity still intact.

My Recommendation:

If you are a Republican, buy popcorn and settle in for an enjoyable, if albeit long, evening.  If you are a Democrat, you can start chugging the Xanax and washing it down with Grey Goose about now.

So what are your predictions?